print-icon
print-icon

Our #1 Name Takes Off Too Soon

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 - 16:57
A Joby Aircraft over Manhattan.
A Joby aircraft over Manhattan.

Note: the trade alert below is what I had drafted Sunday night for Portfolio Armor’s #1 name from Friday, Joby Aviation (JOBY 13.78%↑). Unfortunately, news broke before today’s open that JOBY was buying Blade Air Mobility (BLDE -4.27%↓), an "Uber for helicopters", causing JOBY shares to spike 21% intraday*. I’m not going to chase the stock here, but maybe we’ll take another crack at it in the future if JOBY reappears in our top ten.

Betting On Our #1 Name—And One Of Our Macro Themes

One of Portfolio Armor’s four macro themes is front and center this week. The company at the heart of it also happens to be Friday’s #1 name on our Top Names list—our algorithm’s highest-ranked equity by estimated six-month return. That alignment (theme + quant signal) doesn’t happen every week, and when it does, I like to press the edge.

Why I’m interested:

  • Theme fit: It directly advances one of the macro theses outlined here: 

  • Signal quality: Since late 2022, the weekly Top Ten cohorts have, on average, outpaced SPY over the subsequent six months, 16.25% versus 9.21%. I treat the model’s #1 as a “best ideas” list topper—not a guarantee, but a useful prior.

  • Catalyst window: Earnings land this week, with additional headline potential in the weeks that follow.

How I’m structuring it (at a high level):

  • I’ve built a trade with uncapped upside—so if the story accelerates, I’m not capping the right tail.

  • At the same time, I’m harvesting the elevated pre-earnings implied volatility to trim net cost without dulling that upside.

Risk notes:

  • I’m sizing for a typical event week (no heroics).

  • If the catalyst disappoints, I’ll keep the drawdown bounded by design rather than conviction.

Details below

Today’s Top Names Trade

The company is Joby Aviation (JOBY 13.78%↑), and our trade has three legs:

  1. Buying the $18 strike call expiring on January 16th, 2026,

  2. Selling the $17.50 strike put expiring on August 8th, 2025,

  3. Buying the $15 strike put expiring on August 8th, 2025…

For a net debit of $2.60. The max gain on 2 contracts is uncapped, the max loss is $1,020, and the break even is with JOBY at $16.80*.

*Note: The $16.80 “break-even” is Fidelity’s model at entry; our true expiration break-even is $20.50 (or $22.00 if the short-dated put spread finishes at max loss).

Exiting This Trade

Assuming this fills, I’m going to open a GTC order to exit half of the contracts at $7.50, and aim to get out of both calls before expiration for the best price I can get. [Obviously, it didn’t fill]

If you want a heads up next time we place a trade, you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 



And if you want to add downside protection, you can do so using the Portfolio Armor website or iPhone app. 

 

*Update: It turns out Joby didn't buy all of Blade Air Mobility, just its air taxi service. It also has an organ transport service, like the company I wrote about last week, TransMedics. 

 

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
Loading...