Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I don’t really like talking about trying to time the market with specifics, as most of my readers know. For the better part of the last two years, I’ve been eating crow on my predictions that higher interest rates would grind the economy to a halt.

While I still think that’s going to be the case — that positive real rates and slowing economic activity are a mathematical certainty — I severely underestimated the lag with which those rates make their way through the economy.

And so, here we are, years after the Fed started raising rates, and for the most part, things appear relatively status quo — with the exception of some slight volatility over the last week or two due to President Trump’s tariffs.

Yesterday, I spent an hour of my afternoon listening to Peter Schiff’s November 2006 speech at the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas, in front of 2,000 mortgage bankers. Schiff predicted, with excruciating detail, exactly what was wrong in the housing market and how it would collapse.

If you think the guys from The Big Short were prescient, give this video an hour of your time. Try to pick out one single solitary thing Schiff says that didn’t come to fruition.

His financial forecast wasn’t just surgical — it was delivered straight to the main vein of the very people helping perpetuate the crisis. It’s a stunning, hour-long proclamation that, in and of itself, should have been made into a documentary.

As I listened to Schiff rattle off exactly how the economy would collapse, one perfect detail at a time, it made me think critically about where we are today for the first time in a long time.

For those who read my analysis of the market crash after Trump announced his tariffs, you probably gathered two things. First, I thought cooler heads would prevail and the storm would pass — which seems to have happened with the U.S. rolling back tariffs and active negotiations taking place. And second, either tacitly or through veiled language, I hinted that the market might continue status quo for a while.

It was great to be proven right on the first, but the second, I’m now not so sure about.

Listening to Schiff’s speech yesterday was a well-timed reminder that no matter how much...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE HERE).

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.