Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

For the better part of the last two years, my readers and those that have been listening to me on podcasts have heard me rail nonstop about black swans hiding underneath the surface in the market that could emerge at any point.

I’m constantly trying to remind myself and my readers that I’ve been around markets long enough to know that there are enormous blowups happening behind the scenes that simply haven’t been discovered yet.

In my experience, companies do not admit that they are licked until the very last moments, when it is the only option left. In other words, all PR strategies have failed, all refinancing has failed, and there is nothing left to do but admit defeat.

For an example of how this can occur, you should watch the Netflix movie Skandal! Bringing Down Wirecard, which details Financial Times reporter Dan McCrum‘s investigation into the giant German payments company that turned out to be a massive fraud that few people would’ve otherwise suspected. It’s an awesome watch.

McCrum (Photo: FT)

McCrum has been around markets for as long as I’ve been around and then some. In fact, almost 10 years ago to the day, when I had to reveal my identity from underneath my QTR pseudonym, he was the journalist that I reached out to and gave the scoop to. At the time, he was writing for FT’s Alphaville and wasn’t the world-renowned, award-winning journalist that the world knows him to be now.

Put another way, aside from a group of extremely intelligent activist short sellers, he is one of a few financial-world journalists that I pay very close attention to and respect deeply. Which is why, when he drops a brand new investigation about a $1 trillion asset manager in Canada—questioning its financial dealings, shuffling of assets and transactions within itself—I pay damn close attention.

The first thing everybody should do is watch that Netflix documentary if you haven’t yet. Then, people should go and read McCrum‘s latest...(READ THIS FULL ARTCLE HERE).

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. Assume any and all numbers in this piece are wrong and make sure you check them yourself. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.