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Israel Announces It Will Not Withdraw IDF From Southern Lebanon

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by blueapples
Friday, Jan 24, 2025 - 22:23

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Despite a ceasefire being brokered between Israel and Hamas going into effect this week, it didn't take long to remind the world that peace in the region still remains elusive. From on-going strikes against Houthi militants in Yemen to an escalating conflict in the West Bank, the remaining theaters of a multi-front war that Israel lamented as an existential threat to garner the support of its western allies since October 7th, 2023 highlights a volatile and precarious political landscape that could thrust the world back into chaos at a moments' notice. Even with a ceasefire in Gaza, the fallout from the tentative peace underscores the valid skepticism that hostilities between Israel and Hamas will subside into the prolonged future. Doubts over whether Israel will honor the detente with Hamas have become legitimized following the Netanyahu government's announcement that it will violate the ceasefire it agreed to with Hezbollah in November.

Attacks on southern Lebanon after the IDF's October 1 invasion.

Israel invaded southern Lebanon in October 2024 one year after Hezbollah began firing missiles into the country in support of Hamas following the attacks of October 7th, 2023. The IDF's incursion marked the 6th time Israel invaded Lebanon since 1978. The decision to create a northern front in the war on terrorism Israel declared after Hamas attacks on October 7th proved to be a poor calculation as it stretched the resources of the IDF thin, compromising its efforts in the Gaza Strip and escalating tensions with Iran to the point of direct exchanges with its mortal enemy.

Those developments proved to be too much to bear for the IDF, who in turn negotiated a ceasefire that went into effect on November 27th. Immediately following the agreement, Israel and Hezbollah each accused one another of violating the terms of the ceasefire. However, the hostilities did not devolve into the state of affairs from before the agreement was reached. Hezbollah's accusations that Israel was not honoring the ceasefire have now become validated as the Israeli government has officially announced that it will not withdraw IDF troops from southern Lebanon.

In an official announcement of the decision to keep IDF troops in southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that it was the fault of Hezbollah for not abiding by the parameters of the ceasefire. An official statement released by the Israeli Prime Minister's Office read “Since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States.” That gradual process of withdrawing from southern Lebanon continuing beyond Sunday violated the January 26th deadline that Israel agreed to to with Hezbollah. Hezbollah responded to the development by categorizing the IDF remaining in southern Lebanon as a "brazen breach of the agreement."

According to sources, the Israeli government has notified the United States that it intends to remain in Lebanon for at least an additional 30-day period following a security cabinet meeting on Thursday evening to discuss the ongoing conflict against Hezbollah. Michael Herzog, Israel's US ambassador spoke to the cooperation between Israel and the Trump administration concerning its decision to keep troops in Lebanon. “We are currently in discussions with the Trump administration in order to prolong the duration of time needed for the Lebanese army to deploy and fulfill its duties according to the agreement,” he said.

Despite Herzog insinuating that Israel had the support of the Trump administration ahead of its decision, US officials did not corroborate that premise. Pentagon officials speaking on the matter explicitly contradicted the claims of Netanyahu's office that the ceasefire agreement was not being fully enforced by Lebanon. “The Lebanese Armed Forces have shown that they have the commitment, will, and capability to execute the arrangement,” US officials stated.

Ensuring that Israel's ceasefire with Lebanon will be upheld is the first major issue the second Trump administration must face in the region. The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel went into effect the day before Trump was inaugurated for the second time, although his envoy to Israel as President-Elect was the force behind getting that agreement finalized. In spite of that swift victory of a foreign policy that looks to salvage global geopolitical stability from the chaos that unfolded during the Biden administration, that mission has already proven that it will be no easy feat.

Reason for optimism of a prolonged peace between Israel and Lebanon had been encouraged by the election of Joseph Aoun as the 14th President Of Lebanon on January 9th. Aoun, who also has served as the 14th Commander Of The Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017 has the backing of the United States. His impact will be essential to the ceasefire with Israel being successful as its terms stipulate that the Lebanese Armed Forces must enforce United Nationals Resolution 1701 more closely. That UN resolution from 2006 dictates that the only troops allowed south of the Litani river must be either the Lebanese Armed Forces of UN peacekeeping troops.

Israel's announcement of its intent to ignore the January 26th deadline to withdraw IDF troops seriously diminishes the optimism that followed Aoun's election. The announcement also follows reports circulating out of the Gaza strip alleging that Israel has already violated its ceasefire with Hamas. Earlier this week, IDF officials acknowledged that its troops opened fire on Palestinian civilians. According to those officials, IDF troops opened fire on a group of Palestinians in Rafah who they believed posted a threat after they had approached soldiers stationed in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. Despite the ceasefire being in effect, the IDF still maintains troops in Gaza after the stages of the agreement play out.

“The IDF is acting in accordance with the ceasefire agreement, and is maintaining a security zone in accordance with the agreement,” Israeli officials stated in an effort to assuage concerns that conflict would resume following statements from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that alluded the resumption of a war in Gaza as being a seeming inevitability. Outrage over the IDF's acknowledgment of the shooting in Rafah has been amplified by graphic footage circulating out of the Gaza strip that allegedly captures the incident.

As the Trump administration continues to ride its high into the end of its first week back in the White House that has been marked by swift and decision actions to fulfill campaign promises that skeptics thought would prove to be little more than useful campaign rhetoric, developments out of Israel highlight how its promise to usher in an era of peace across the world will be among the hardest to achieve.

The stark juxtaposition between the regard Trump and Netanyahu are held in by their respective countrymen illustrates the ascendancy of the US President compared to the rapid downward spiral that the Israeli Prime Minister has become enveloped in. If anything forecasts reason to believe peace can be achieved in the region, it may be that the waning influence of Netanyahu's regime is giving way to US leadership that was entirely absent in the region during the 4 years of the Biden administration but has finally triumphantly returned following the ascent of Trump back into the Oval Office.

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
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