Paving The Way For Another Israeli Strike On Iran
Consolidating Its Victory
In yesterday's post (Why Israel Took Mount Hermon), we shared a short thread by a former Israeli Air Force pilot on why Israel had taken Mount Hermon in Lebanon.
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) December 12, 2024
In this post, we'll share another thread by him about how Israel's recent air strikes on Lebanon pave the way for another Israeli strike on Iran, should that become necessary, followed by a brief trading note.
Before we get to that thread though, some broader context about what is happening in the Mideast.
ZeroHedge shared an excellent post by Andrew Korybko about this yesterday ("Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis"). The first paragraph pretty much sums up the current status quo in the Mideast:
The Iranian-led Resistance Axis has been defeated by Israel. Hamas’ terrorist attack on 7 October 2023 prompted Israel’s collective punishment of the Palestinians in Gaza, which set into motion a series of conflicts that expanded to Lebanon and Syria. Israel has also bombed Yemen and Iran. Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s leaderships were destroyed, leading to a ceasefire in Lebanon, while the Assad government was just overthrown by a Turkish-backed terrorist blitz that severed Iran’s military logistics to Hezbollah.
It's worth noting here, that the "Axis of Resistance" was always kind of fake and gay. It's one thing to attack a country with irregular militias if you don't have a country of your own, but Iran has 10x Israel's population. If Iran's leaders were so troubled by Israel's existence, they could have fielded a large army and asked Iraq and Syria for passage through those countries to invade Israel. That they didn't suggests a certain lack of commitment.
But the key point here is that Israel has won. In addition to what Korybko laid out in the paragraph above--and his point about how Russia has cordial relations with Israel, meaning no major power is backing Iran against Israel--consider the chart below.
Israeli stocks are up 80% since their nadir in late October of 2023, in the wake of Hamas's terrorist attack on October 7th.
See also Nick Fuentes's assessment of the situation below.
"It's time for a little honesty. You know how much it sucks being on the other side of Israel? 'They can't keep getting away with it.' They just do whatever they want. And no one cares and no one can stop them."
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) December 11, 2024
This guy get it. pic.twitter.com/FRNe6mvgAt
With that in mind, let's look at the former Israeli pilot's thread, followed by our trading note.
Paving The Way For Israel To Strike Iran Again
Syria used to possess the most densely concentrated array of air defense batteries in the world. Dozens of Russian-made SA-17, SA-22, SA-6, SA-8, and SA-5 batteries launched hundreds of missiles at Israeli fighter jets over the past decade, downing an Israeli F16I in 2018. 2/6 pic.twitter.com/LFQaebAHJR
— Naftali Hazony (@nhazony) December 12, 2024
Generations of Israeli fighter pilots were raised memorizing the range of Syrian SA-5 missiles (180 miles) and studying the vulnerabilities of the MiG-29 (weak radar and a small fuel tank). No longer. The nemesis of the Israeli Air Force has been completely destroyed. 3/6 pic.twitter.com/x9pJxSJPEP
— Naftali Hazony (@nhazony) December 12, 2024
In both Ukraine’s war with Russia and Israel’s war with Iran, American weapons have thus far dominated Russian technology. Will the next “Top Gun” movie feature Chinese drones? 6/6 pic.twitter.com/155daaeC1i
— Naftali Hazony (@nhazony) December 12, 2024
Trading Note: A Top Names Options Play
In yesterday's post, we mentioned that Portfolio Armor's top ten names from June 6th did very well over the next six months.
Today, we have a bullish options trade teed up on one of last night's top ten names. If you'd like a heads up when we place it, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below.
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