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Paving The Way For Another Israeli Strike On Iran

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Friday, Dec 13, 2024 - 8:21
An Israeli F-15
An Israeli Air Force F-15 (photo via the IAF).

Consolidating Its Victory 

In yesterday's post (Why Israel Took Mount Hermon), we shared a short thread by a former Israeli Air Force pilot on why Israel had taken Mount Hermon in Lebanon. 

In this post, we'll share another thread by him about how Israel's recent air strikes on Lebanon pave the way for another Israeli strike on Iran, should that become necessary, followed by a brief trading note.

Before we get to that thread though, some broader context about what is happening in the Mideast. 

ZeroHedge shared an excellent post by Andrew Korybko about this yesterday ("Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis"). The first paragraph pretty much sums up the current status quo in the Mideast: 

The Iranian-led Resistance Axis has been defeated by Israel. Hamas’ terrorist attack on 7 October 2023 prompted Israel’s collective punishment of the Palestinians in Gaza, which set into motion a series of conflicts that expanded to Lebanon and Syria. Israel has also bombed Yemen and Iran. Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s leaderships were destroyed, leading to a ceasefire in Lebanon, while the Assad government was just overthrown by a Turkish-backed terrorist blitz that severed Iran’s military logistics to Hezbollah.

It's worth noting here, that the "Axis of Resistance" was always kind of fake and gay. It's one thing to attack a country with irregular militias if you don't have a country of your own, but Iran has 10x Israel's population. If Iran's leaders were so troubled by Israel's existence, they could have fielded a large army and asked Iraq and Syria for passage through those countries to invade Israel. That they didn't suggests a certain lack of commitment. 

But the key point here is that Israel has won. In addition to what Korybko laid out in the paragraph above--and his point about how Russia has cordial relations with Israel, meaning no major power is backing Iran against Israel--consider the chart below. 

EIS Chart

Israeli stocks are up 80% since their nadir in late October of 2023, in the wake of Hamas's terrorist attack on October 7th. 

See also Nick Fuentes's assessment of the situation below. 

With that in mind, let's look at the former Israeli pilot's thread, followed by our trading note. 

Paving The Way For Israel To Strike Iran Again

Trading Note: A Top Names Options Play

In yesterday's post, we mentioned that Portfolio Armor's top ten names from June 6th did very well over the next six months. 

Today, we have a bullish options trade teed up on one of last night's top ten names. If you'd like a heads up when we place it, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

And if you are concerned about downside risk, you can download our optimal hedging app by aiming your iPhone camera at the QR code below (or by tapping here if you are reading this on your iPhone). 

 

If you'd like to stay in touch

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).

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