print-icon
print-icon

Jared Kushner On Israel's Assassination Of Nasrallah

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Sunday, Sep 29, 2024 - 13:31
An Israeli F-15 loaded with bunker busters, on its way to bomb Hezbollah chief Nasrallah.
An Israeli F-15 loaded with bunker busters, on its way to bomb Hezbollah chief Nasrallah (still via IDF video). 

An Even Worse Week For Hezbollah 

In a post here last weekend, after the exploding beepers and walkie-talkies followed by Israeli air strikes, I wrote that Hezbollah had just had its worst week ever. 

Last week turned out to be even worse, as the militant group lost its long-time leader, after an Israeli air strike bombed his meeting place to rubble. I was going to write something this week about the light at the end of the tunnel of this war: the possibility for peace and prosperity in the region afterwards, but it looks like President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner beat me to it. 

A Son-In-Law On Each Side Of The Conflict 

Readers may recall that Jared Kushner was a senior advisor to President Trump, and Trump's point man in the diplomacy that led to the Abraham Accords, peace treaties between Israel and several Arab countries. Readers may be interested to know that Trump now has sons-in-law on both sides of the Arab-Israeli conflict, as his daughter Tiffany married a Lebanese-American billionaire named Michael Boulos. 

So perhaps Boulos and Kushner can work together to negotiate a broader Mideast peace deal if Trump is elected in November. Below are Kushner's hopeful comments in the wake of Israel's assassination of Nasrallah. 

Before we get to that, a quick follow up on our China trade from last week, for those who missed my previous post. 

Out For A 200% Gain 

In a post here on the 24th (Taking Advantage Of China's Stimulus Avalanche), I mentioned a stock that should benefit from the China stimulus, Qifu Technology (QFIN 3.57%↑).

As I wrote there, 

Our trade there was buying the $25 strike calls on QFIN expiring on January 17th, for $2 each.

We exited those calls on Friday at $6.01, for a 200% gain. 

You can read about our three other China trades in our subsequent post, Betting on China As It Brings Out The Big Guns.  

And you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list at the bottom of this page if you'd like a heads up when we place our next trade. 

Now on to Jared Kushner's thoughts on Israel's offensive against Hezbollah 

Authored by Jared Kushner on X [emphasis mine]

Lebanon "On The Brink Of Relief And Deliverance" 

September 27th is the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough.

I have spent countless hours studying Hezbollah and there is not an expert on earth who thought that what Israel has done to decapitate and degrade them was possible.

This is significant because Iran is now fully exposed. The reason why their nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, despite weak air defense systems, is because Hezbollah has been a loaded gun pointed at Israel. Iran spent the last forty years building this capability as its deterrent.

President Trump would often say, “Iran has never won a war but never lost a negotiation.” The Islamic Republic’s regime is much tougher when risking Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian and Houthi lives than when risking their own. Their foolish efforts to assassinate President Trump and hack his campaign reek of desperation and are hardening a large coalition against them.

Iranian leadership is stuck in the old Middle East, while their neighbors in the GCC are sprinting toward the future by investing in their populations and infrastructure. They are becoming dynamic magnets for talent and investment while Iran falls further behind. As the Iranian proxies and threats dissipate, regional security and prosperity will rise for Christians, Muslims and Jews alike.

Israel now finds itself with the threat from Gaza mostly neutralized and the opportunity to neutralize Hezbollah in the north. It’s unfortunate how we got here but maybe there can be a silver lining in the end.

Anyone who has been calling for a ceasefire in the North is wrong. There is no going back for Israel. They cannot afford now to not finish the job and completely dismantle the arsenal that has been aimed at them. They will never get another chance.

After the brilliant, rapid-fire tactical successes of the pagers, radios, and targeting of leadership, Hezbollah’s massive weapon cache is unguarded and unmanned. Most of Hezbollah fighters are hiding in their tunnels. Anyone still around was not important enough to carry a pager or be invited to a leadership meeting. Iran is reeling, as well, insecure and unsure how deeply its own intelligence has been penetrated. Failing to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the threat is irresponsible.

I have been hearing some amazing stories about how Israel has been collecting intelligence over the past 10 months with some brilliant technology and crowdsourcing initiatives.

But today, with the confirmed killing of Nasrallah and at least 16 top commanders eliminated in just nine days, was the first day I started thinking about a Middle East without Iran’s fully loaded arsenal aimed at Israel. So many more positive outcomes are possible.

This is a moment to stand behind the peace-seeking nation of Israel and the large portion of the Lebanese who have been plagued by Hezbollah and who want to return to the times when their country was thriving, and Beirut a cosmopolitan city. The main issue between Lebanon and Israel is Iran; otherwise there is a lot of benefit for the people of both countries from working together.

The right move now for America would be to tell Israel to finish the job. It’s long overdue. And it’s not only Israel’s fight.

More than 40 years ago, Hezbollah killed 241 US military personnel, including 220 Marines. That remains the single deadliest day for the U.S. Marine Corps since the Battle of Iwo Jima. Later that same day, Hezbollah killed 58 French paratroopers.

And now, over the past six weeks or so, Israel has eliminated as many terrorists on the US list of wanted terrorists as the US has done in the last 20 years. Including Ibrahim Aqil, the leader of Hezbollah’s Islamic Jihad Organization who masterminded the 1983 killing of those Marines.

The philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy wrote on X, “I keep reading everywhere that Lebanon is 'on the brink of collapse.' No. It is on the brink of relief and deliverance.” Moments like this come once in a generation, if they even come at all.

The Middle East is too often a solid where little changes. Today, it is a liquid and the ability to reshape is unlimited. Do not squander this moment.

Let’s all pray for success, for peace and for the good judgement of our leaders.

 

If you'd like to stay in touch

You can follow Jared Kushner on X here

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).

And you can hedge your long positions using our optimal hedging app

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
0
Loading...