Trump vs Reagan Historical Analysis
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Good Morning Team,
I'm sure you heard about the awful events from this weekend.
From where I sit, Trump will win the election in November.
First some historical precedent:
President Reagan:
The assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan occurred on March 30, 1981.
* Reagan became president in 1981. Reagan was leaving a speech at the Washington Hilton Hotel in Washington, D.C., and walking to his motorcade when he was shot by John Hinckley Jr., who was in the crowd.
* The shooting took place just over two months into Reagan's first term as president.
* Reagan was seriously wounded in the attack. A bullet ricocheted off the presidential limousine and hit him in the chest, puncturing his lung and coming within an inch of his heart.
* Three other people were also shot during the incident, including Reagan's press secretary, James Brady, who was partially paralyzed as a result.
* Despite the severity of his injuries, Reagan recovered from the shooting and returned to his duties as president.
* The events contributed to Reagan's initial popularity. His approval ratings, which were around 60% before the attempt, surged to nearly 70% in the following months.
*Reagan went on to complete his first term and was re-elected in 1984 for a second term by a large margin?
Here's the political map in 1984 courtesy of Wikipedia which came from a simple google search
Here's how the stock market performed during...
Ronald Reagan (1981-1989):
Overall increase: 113.3%
First term: +30%
Second term: +67%
President Trump
Now a look at how the stock market performed under Donald Trump (2017-2021):
Overall increase/first term: 67% (as of his last full day in office)
And the market soared the night of the election at the end of 2016...
This "performance" data doesn't include 2016's very strong buy the rumor of Trump winning performance!
That was more than double the performance for Reagan's first term.
We are in a new bull market (started in 2023) and I can easily see another late 90's or roaring 20's climax run unfold during Trump's second term. I remain very bullish about our future.
From a common sense standpoint, not political, Biden should be replaced.
My aunt has dementia and when it hits, things deteriorate FAST.
Even if it is not dementia or anything else.
Clearly, he is slowing down and is not as coherent as he was before.
We are not talking about a manager of a 7/11 gas station or the Gap.
We are talking about the President of The United States Of America.
Do you want someone mentally sharp/coherent to be our President?
The market does.
Don't take my word for it, just look at the market.
Back to the market... Trump's stock = DJT is soaring in the premarket.
We are entering earnings season and, as always, I want to see how the stocks (and the market) react to the news.
Early Movers/Breakouts:
GM
WMB
HUM
DJT
GEO
HIVE
Week Ahead:
Please note:
We are entering the thick of earnings season, everyday over the next few weeks we will have a lot of stocks reporting earnings.
Too many to list here.
1. Monday - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
2. Tuesday - June Retail Sales
3. Wednesday - June Building Permits
4. Thursday Philly Fed Manufacturing Data
5. 11 Fed speaker events this week
I'll be back after the open, with today's breakouts report.
Enjoy your day!
Adam
- Note, all stock market performance data came from A.I.
I don't see a reason why the information might not be correct, but please double check it if you want.
