Why The Democrats Can't Ditch Biden
The Dems Are Almost Certainly Stuck With Biden...
On Friday, our fellow ZeroHedge contributing editor Quoth The Raven reiterated his prediction that "Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in November." (Joe Biden's Last Debate). Unfortunately for Democrat voters, Quoth The Raven's prediction will most likely not come to pass. Former Trump staffer Darren Beatie explained why on X on Friday.
Here's Why
Authored by Darren Beattie on X
Important details below:
Technically, the DNC has many hundreds of members, but the actual nerve center of the party is this committee, small enough to fit into a single D.C. hotel room.
The roughly 30 members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee are far from famous. You’ve heard of Ilhan Omar, AOC, and Gretchen Whitmer, but have you heard of… Frank Leone? Ken Martin? David McDonald? But anonymous or not, this is the body with the power to change how the Democrats pick their nominee.
And this body, as it happens, is stacked in Biden’s favor. Membership in this critical committee is controlled by the chairman of the DNC, Jaime Harrison, formerly chair of the South Carolina Democrats. Harrison owes his position to being chosen by Joe Biden, and as expected of him, he’s filled Rules and Bylaws with reliable Biden backers. A year ago, over loud protests from some sections of the party, the Rules and Bylaws Committee executed Biden’s request to reshuffle the Democratic primary calendar to reduce the prominence of states that are “too white.” They demoted Iowa and New Hampshire (the states where Biden bombed) and elevated South Carolina (the state that rocketed him to the nomination in 2020).
The presence of so many Biden political allies implies, on the flip side, a lack of allies for anyone else. If there really were a viable plot to install Gavin Newsom specifically, it would help to have Newsom political allies somewhere high up in the Democrat Party apparatus. But instead, such allies are missing. That’s no surprise, because he’s not the one who controls the Rules Committee.
In short, the DNC is not some independent actor on the left. It is a body substantially controlled by Joe Biden. Expecting it to change course in order to save the Democrats is like expecting Donald Trump’s presidential campaign to be derailed by the membership of Mar-a-Lago.
Power Is Addictive
Richard Hanania mused on why Joe Biden wouldn't want to step down (and by association why his wife "Doctor" Jill Biden, Ed.D, and his staffers wouldn't want him to either), even if his chances of getting reelected at this point are maybe one-in-three:
The difference between president and ex-president is maybe Jeff Bezos returning your call in five minutes rather than a day. Most of us think it would be cool to talk to Bezos under any circumstances, but once you’ve been at the pinnacle of fame and power this feels like a major downgrade in status.
President is clearly a much better job than ex-president, but the thing about Biden is he’s not going to be a normal ex-president. He quits now, and a cloud of embarrassment is going to hang over him for the rest of his life. If it’s true that he’s lost a step, which he clearly has, there just aren’t many things left he can do to get enjoyment out of life. Starting a non-profit or think tank is highly unlikely. After not running again because he was too old and senile, nobody is going to buy the idea of Biden the institution builder. He doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would’ve wanted to spend too much time writing a book even when he was younger. His voice can’t get him through a debate, so I doubt he will follow Obama’s path of narrating the stories of animals living in our national parks.
Indeed. Jill and the rest of Team Biden enjoy being part of the Biden White House, and they're not going to give it up just because Biden can't debate his way out of a paper bag, or find his way off of a stage on his own.
Let's wrap this up with a brief trading note.
Going For Another 200% Gain
In a post on Friday, we mentioned we had two recent options trades on track for ~200% gains.
In that post, we mentioned we had another trade teed up with similar elements to the two currently in the black. That trade filled on Friday afternoon. You can read about it here.
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