Summoning A God
Summoning A God
Leopold Aschenbrenner, who says he worked at OpenAI previously, put out a 140 page paper on the current state of AI research, and what's likely to happen within the next ten years (Situational Awarness: The Decade Ahead). Zach Vorhies read it and found it terrifying. Below is his thread on it.
Before we get to that, a quick follow up on yesterday's post ("Full-Blown Financial Warfare"). In that post, I mentioned I had an options trade teed up on one of our top names. You can read about that trade by clicking here or on the image below.
Now onto Zach's thread.
It’s a 140+ pages. I’m going to post the video analysis.
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
Get a drink. You are going to need it.
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“Behind the scenes, there’s a fierce scramble to secure every power contract still available for the rest of the decade, every voltage transformer that can possibly be procured. American big business is gearing up to pour trillions of dollars into a long-unseen mobilization of…
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“Along the way, national security forces not seen in half a century will be unleashed, and before long, The Project will be on. If we’re lucky, we’ll be in an all-out race with the CCP; if we’re unlucky, an all-out war.”
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“Reliably controlling AI systems much smarter than we are is an unsolved technical problem. And while it is a solvable problem, things could easily go off the rails during a rapid intelligence explosion. Managing this will be extremely tense; failure could easily be…
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we’ll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence. Somewhere in a SCIF, the endgame will be on. “
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“The pace of deep learning progress in the last decade has simply been extraordinary. A mere decade ago it was revolutionary for a deep learning system to identify simple images. Today, we keep trying to come up with novel, ever harder tests, and yet each new benchmark is quickly… pic.twitter.com/2qyBBhiP9C
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“To see just how big of a deal algorithmic progress can be, consider the following illustration of the drop in price to attain ~50% accuracy on the MATH benchmark (high school competition math) over just two years… efficiency improved by nearly 1,000x—in less than two years.” pic.twitter.com/45qEu2WJq7
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
The AI models can vastly improve just by “unhobbling”, aka unlocking improvements by better accessing data already in the model (latent space).
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“A survey by Epoch AI of some of these techniques, like scaffolding, tool use, and so on, finds that techniques like this can typically… pic.twitter.com/gpFD00glNS
“By 2027, rather than a chatbot, you’re going to have something that looks more like an agent, like a coworker.”
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“We’d be able to run millions of copies (and soon at 10x+ human speed) of the automated AI researchers.”
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
“…given inference fleets in 2027, we should be able to generate an entire internet’s worth of tokens, every single day.”
Zach Vorhies also did a video on the paper, which you can watch below.
I'm sorry - I wasn't pessimistic enough about the AI situation - the numbers are WAY worse than I imagined.
— Zach Vorhies / Google Whistleblower (@Perpetualmaniac) June 14, 2024
Video Analysis of "SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead".
Everything is going to change. We are NOT going back to normal.
Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/rnWTVZnHzD
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