Since Russia invaded the Ukraine in February, 2022, there have been a series of escalations by the West, raising the prospect of direct war between Russia and NATO. One could argue that the West's escalations started with NATO's expansion to include former Warsaw Pact countries beyond Germany, despite the first Bush Administration's promises to Russia that the anti-Russia alliance wouldn't expand "one inch eastward", and one could also argue that the U.S. supported color revolution against the Ukraine's elected government in 2014 was another escalation, as was supplying weapons to the Ukraine while it was fighting Russian separatists in the Donbas, but for the purposes of this post, let's focus on the period since Russia's invasion in 2022.
One after another, the Biden Administration has backtracked on its own promises: that it wouldn't send tanks to the Ukrainians, that it wouldn't send F-16s, etc. The latest escalation by the Biden Administration was giving the Ukrainians a green light to strike Russian territory with American weapons, which the Ukrainians have now done.
Breaking News: A Ukrainian official confirmed that the country's military had fired American weapons into Russia, days after President Biden lifted a ban on such use. https://t.co/GQrbVBxkmj
A number of analysts have suggested that NATO advisors are doing pretty much everything but pulling the trigger when it comes to advanced weapons systems, as they often rely on U.S. satellite and other reconnaissance data that the Ukrainians wouldn't have access to.
Reestablishing Deterrence
Clearly, the West is undeterred by the threat of Russian retaliation. The lack of objective coverage of the Ukraine War, which the Ukrainians are currently losing, and the focus on successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory gives American and European war hawks, such as Estonian President Kaja Kallas, the confidence that they can do whatever they want to Russia without fearing a response.
She’s a girlboss militarist antagonizing a neighbor that has about as many active duty troops (1.3 million) as her country has citizens (1.4 million).
Presumably, there is a red line beyond which this won't be true, and Russia will risk war with NATO in response. But Russia's current inaction against NATO makes Western hawks think there actually is no red line. Some are even nonchalant about the risk of nuclear war, thinking that Russia's nuclear weapons may not actually work. So one idea for Russia to reestablish deterrence would be to test a nuclear weapon.
Russia may need to test a nuke, in violation of whatever treaty prevents that, to wake Western leaders up.
But Unz Magazine publisher Ron Unz has another idea.
Meet Mr. Kinzhal
Russia's Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger) is a hypersonic, air-to-surface missile that carries a 1,100lbs conventional warhead. Note its reported range below, over 2,000km.
Ron Unz's suggestion is that Russia give NATO a couple days' advanced warning, and then launch a hypersonic missile strike, destroying NATO's headquarters in Belgium:
Now suppose that NATO missiles based in Ukraine struck deep within Russia against important military targets, perhaps inflicting considerable casualties or loss of important equipment. The Russian government could publicly declare that since those missiles had been supplied, aimed, and controlled by NATO personnel, NATO had obviously become a co-belligerent and they would directly retaliate against that organization.
They could then announce that such retaliation would take the form of a hypersonic missile strike destroying the NATO headquarters building in Brussels, Belgium, with the attack scheduled for 12 Noon in two days’ time. That sort of advance warning would attract enormous international media coverage while allowing NATO plenty of time to fully evacuate that building and those nearby and also deploy a large number of its best anti-missile systems to defend the facility. Therefore, assuming that the multi-missile strike still succeeded in totally leveling the NATO HQ, the result would be few if any human casualties and a simultaneous demonstration that Russian hypersonics were unstoppable by any NATO defenses.
Recall that the reported range of the Kinzhal missile is over 2,000km. Excluding non-contiguous Kaliningrad, the distance between NATO's HQ and Russia's border is 1,700km, meaning Russian planes could launch these missiles from Russian territory. Back to Unz:
The Russians could then announce that their next retaliatory strikes would sink several of our aircraft carriers, a warning that American military leaders would now be forced to take very seriously.
Indeed. Let's hope cooler heads prevail and it doesn't come to that. The idea of risking World War III over the Ukraine, of all places, would have seemed insane to American statesmen from Kennan to Kissinger.
In Case You Missed It
In an update to our previous post about GameStop, we mentioned we'd come up with a trade on it, that can make us money whether the stock spikes or sinks after next week's earnings. We have since posted that trade on our Substack.
If you'd like to stay in touch
You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
