The Texas-Ukraine Connections
The Texas-Ukraine Connections
Three theories have been posited recently tying the Biden Administration's actions in Texas with what's happening in the Ukraine War. Let's review them, and then close with a brief trading note.
The Neocons' Failed Gamble
WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING IN WASHINGTON
Neocons had a problem. The big Spring-Summer Counteroffensive, which was supposed to kick the Russians out of Ukraine, was a miserable failure. Even TIME Magazine was reporting that Zelensky is delusional, the Ukrainians are running out of soldiers, and Ukrainian officials are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.
House Republicans, fearing their base, began to have cold feet about throwing more money down this bottomless pit. So Biden and the Neocons came up with a plan: package Ukraine aid with border security. Each side would get want it wants.
But Senate RINOs couldn’t help themselves — they turned the border security provisions into an amnesty bill.
Meanwhile Biden picked a fight with Texas over what little remains of our border security, reminding Republicans that he can’t be trusted to faithfully execute the law. So now the deal has fallen apart.
So what is the Administration to do? There’s only ever one answer for that: blame Trump. Supposedly he is responsible for Ukraine losing the war AND the southern border being overrun. In reality, Biden and his handlers have nobody to blame but themselves for both policies.
Shakespeare put it best: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars but in ourselves.”
The Russian Suspicion
Authored by Russians with Attitude on X
Some Russian Telegram posters seem to see a connection between the Texas situation and Ukraine. Not sure yet if I'd make the connection, but it's an interesting angle.
Vladislav Ugolny:
At the beginning of the year, during the "Ramstein" format meeting, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that the US has run out of funds to assist Ukraine.
Ukraine cannot receive military equipment from the reserves of the US army warehouses. This requires a complete overhaul of policy at the federal level. There are no shells for Ukraine at the federal level.
But do you know where they can be found?
In the military warehouses owned by the states. Yes, in the USA, the states have their own National Guard troops and, accordingly, their own depots.
And do you know which warehouses are the richest, and which National Guard is the coolest?
Texas.
This specifically refers to the 36th Infantry Division, which is very capable.
Other states also have similar facilities and troops, but Texas... Texas here serves as an untapped reserve that can be accessed by pressuring the state's governor.
Consequently, looking at the events unfolding around the Texas-Mexico border, one should not focus exclusively on the border issue.
The contradictions between Washington and Texas are much broader and include the pressure of the Biden administration on Texas regarding these very armaments.
After all, Texas has already been pressured through protests by the Ukrainian diaspora, as well as by American military elites connected to Texas, via the CIA.
The LNG Question
Recall that American liquified natural gas was supposed to offset some of our European allies' loss of Russian natural gas after the mysterious destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. Our friend Sergei Witte speculates below that the Biden Administration's recent ban on U.S. LNG exports--ostensibly at the behest of a young climate activist--is really a way to punish Texas for standing up to the Biden Admin's open borders policy.
Texas makes a stand on immigration, so the White House retaliates by blocking their LNG exports.
— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) January 26, 2024
Perfectly normal, functioning, healthy political system at work. https://t.co/IyT881dWTn
Trading Note: Tuesday's Earnings Calendar
Of the dozens of companies reporting on Tuesday, we have bearish bets teed up on two we think are likely to disappoint.
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Monday Afternoon Update
Here is our trade alert for the two bearish bets we mentioned above. As we note at that link, we just exited one of last week's trades, a bullish bet on SoFi Technologies (SOFI 13.66%↑), for a 128% gain.
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