Expect Severe Volatility And Supply Chain Disruption

BATTLE MATHEMATICS

Sticking with the topic of the aforementioned conflict, let’s look at some numbers. Keep in mind these are rough numbers so for the detail oriented among readers forgive me for not being exact.

The Houthis will shoot down ships in the straight with Iranian manufactured drones—total cost from $20,000 to $50,000.

The Americans will escort aforementioned ships through the Strait and defend against drone strikes with $2.5 million missiles.

If you wanted to wage a war of financial attrition, this would surely be how to do it. Which brings me to some additional maths.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve just reported a staggering operating loss of $114 billion for the year. This breaks records. It is, in fact, the largest loss in the institution’s history.

This alarming development places it hypothetically third in the ranks of the largest bankruptcies in American history, trailing only behind the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual in 2008.

But don’t worry, I’m sure Jim Cramer and CNBC and the assorted podium donuts of the media will continue to suggest that buying US debt is “safe.” It’s the COVID Vaccine of the financial world — “safe and effective.” Trust us!

In fact, a recent BofA report suggests just that.

The tragic reality is that what we are witnessing is 80 years of pax Americana coming to an end. Expect severe volatility and supply chain disruption, which will bring with it stagflation.

Nasty stuff, but hey, I’m not here to make you feel warm and fuzzy or terrify you either. It is what it is. Best to simply prepare and act accordingly.

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