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The Curious Case Of Javier Milei

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by blueapples
Monday, Dec 11, 2023 - 3:06

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While proponents of populism purport it to represent the raison d'etre of democracy by advancing the utilitarian will of the common man, the many vanguards of the ideology to emerge in recent years have cast doubt on its ability to do so. In essence, the rationale behind the promises made by populists isn't much different than that behind those made by the liberal political order it supposedly opposes. Though populism's libertarian nuances delineate it from liberalism's more socialism-skewed tenets, there is one profoundly consequential commonality found between emissaries of each cause: they're politicians...and trusting politicians of any persuasion weaves a doomed destiny into the tapestry of a nation's fate.

Javier Milei was inaugurated President of Argentina on December 10th.

The most recent poster-boy of the hopelessly naive, if not outright false belief that a populist hero will emerge from the corruption of the establishment to dismantle it is newly elected Argentinean President Javier Milei. Exhibiting charisma that epitomizes the spirit of Max Weber, Milei was able to rampantly ascend from humble political origins from being elected to the lower house of the Argentina National Congress in 2021 to being sworn in as the nation's president in only 2 years.

Milei's torrid climb to the forefront of not only Argentinean, but global politics, was fledged with a boisterous enthusiasm to dismantle the existing political system installed by the globalist world order, echoing the tenor of Donald Trump from 2016. In a similar trajectory following Trump's presidency, Milei has already broken promises he made to the populist constituency that saw him elected president despite only officially being in office for one day.

Like the political climate that fostered support for Trump's election in 2016, Argentina finds itself in a similar state of upheaval. While the premise of handing the presidency off to an establishment figure representing the insular political class in Hillary Clinton was the catalyst for popular support for a gringe candidate in 2016, the backdrop that set the stage for Milei's election was an economic climate in Argentina more disastrous than any seen in generations. Just last month, annualized inflation in Argentina reached 143%, the highest such level since 1991. Those dire economic straits place upwards of 40% of South America's second largest economy into poverty. With a reality resembling that of the Weimer Republic, the promises of Milei to take on Argentina's central bank in a diametric rejection to the monetary policy that plunged Argentina into economic despair was met with vast support among the nation's populous. With the economy being the predominant consideration among Argentinian voters, Milei's economic policy making proved to be the most consequential position of his platform toward realizing his election as president.

Given the importance of that issue, it's no wonder that economic reforms were at the core of Milei's inauguration speech. "The outgoing government has left us on track towards hyperinflation," Milei said. "We are going to do everything we can to avoid such a catastrophe" before going on to paint a picture of a fiscal plan aimed at public sector cuts that would amount to 5% of the nation's GDP. Milei's economic reforms may best be represented by his "non-negotiable" promise to shut down Argentina's Central Bank as the most major offensive against the economic establishment the newly elected president has declared as his sworn enemy.

While Milei has sworn to eviscerated Argentina's existing economic order, the role he sees his nation filling in the global economy is a far cry from anything that could be categorized as anti-establishment. According to senior officials in Milei's administration, Argentina will not be joining the BRICS economic bloc in 2024 as it had been scheduled to. The announcement doesn't appear to signify a delay of Argentina's assimilation into BRICS as much as it is a tacit rejection it. Throughout his campaign, Milei expressed his vehement opposition to China on the basis of rejecting communism. In doing so, Milei has ostensibly rejected any economic cooperation between the two nations the magnitude of Argentina joining BRICS.

When forecasting his foreign policy ahead of being elected Milei stated that under his regime, Argentina most staunch allies would be the United States and Israel. Now that he has taken office, it appears that Milei's Argentina will be an agent fighting against de-dollarization and the emerging Russo-Sino axis' mission to implement a multi-polar economic order.

Its commitment to aligning itself with the US as the foundation of its foreign policy reverberates into Argentina's domestic policy making as well, as Milei has floated the idea about abandoning the Argentinean Peso by adopting the US Dollar as his nation's official currency. Milei has promised to keep existing currency controls in place for the beginning of his administration, putting the immediate dollarization of Argentina's economy off the table. However, it remains a possibility over the medium and long term, according to key member's of his transition team who met with banking executives in Buenos Aires in the weeks preceding Milei's inauguration.

Aligning Argentina with the United States so soon into his administration may put Milei in a precarious position given the overwhelming uncertainty in the political climate in the US heading into the 2024 election year. Milei has constantly waxed poetic about former president Donald Trump, envisioning a dreamland where he, Trump, and Jair Bolsanaro simultaneously hold office.

However, the present administration in the United States is one diametrically opposed to Trump and Milei's political philosophy. As such, in the interregnum between now and who will be elected President of the United States in 2024, assimilating into the good graces of Washington means going head-to-head with a presidential administration as devoutly globalist as any in the world. From funding on-going conflicts in Ukraine and Israel to fighting climate change, Argentina will have to broach contentious foreign policy positions in cultivating a diplomatic relation between Washington and Buenos Aires. Doing so may not be as contentious as the daunting premise seems, given that the Milei and Biden administrations seem to have more in common than one would presume. Both presidents have declared wavering support for Ukraine, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arriving in Buenos Aires for Milei's inauguration. However, it is another point of agreement between Biden and Milei that came into light on the very first day of the Argentinian president's administration.

There is perhaps no greater narrative that represents globalism better than that of climate change. That premise was certainly something Milei espoused during his presidential campaign as he constantly assigned the ideology as a hoax conjured the globalist world order in an effort to further its agenda. Despite that, the Biden administration would find comfort in Milei's intention to remain part of the Paris Agreement on climate change. According to Argentinian diplomat Marcia Levaggi, who Milei appointed to the position heading Argentina's delegation to the COP28, the new presidential administration will fully support the country's stake in the Paris Agreement.

Levaggi made this assurance following her deployment to the United Nations COP28 climate summit in Dubai. Landing on the day of Milei's inauguration, Levaggi quelled her cohorts' concerns by assuring them she had the full support of the new libertarian administration, stating "Milei is a liberal, he's a libertarian, and he believes in market forces. And the market demands to include measures to address climate change." Levaggi went on to say that the Milei administration intends to keep its commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Milei's apparent decision to act in accordance with the framework dictated under the Paris Agreement is in stark juxtaposition against his intent to eliminate Argentina's Environmental Ministry. However, the latter decision appears to have less to do with rejecting the globalist climate change agenda he declared as the latest specter of socialism haunting the world and more about cutting spending given Argentina's dire economic straits. Although Argentina's Environmental Ministry will be shuttered in an effort to shrink the government in line with Milei's proposed public sector reforms, the mission tasked to that bureaucratic body will be redistributed between other ministries, at least according to Levaggi.

While Argentina is poised to undergo a seismic shift in its domestic policy making, tenets of Javier Milei's early foreign policy framework demonstrate a contradiction to his steadfast rejection of globalism. Given the role the United States, Israel, and other nations he foresees as his core allies play in advancing globalism's cause, the populist wave that Milei rode to victory may ultimately wash upon the shores of Davos. As the earliest of developments in his newly inaugurated presidency counter-intuitively play into the globalist establishment he so firmly rejected before being elected, there is a looming threat that Milei may prove to be less of a savior than a false idol in the fight against globalism. Given Milei's declared intent the hitch his ride to the American-aligned global political order, the litmus test for his iconoclasm is inextricably tied to the 2024 United States Presidential Election. Should Donald Trump triumph over his democratic opposition, that would make surely enable Milei to follow on the trajectory he promised to take Argentina in. The real challenge lies in if globalism triumphs over populism again in 2024 like it had in 2020. In that event, Milei's authenticity as a populist will be made clear depending on whether or not he embraces that new world order or defies it as vigorously as he had campaigned against it.

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