Geopolitics: Taiwan's 2024 Election Puppet Show

Comment— Last post shared gave us insights into the broader geopolitical picture in Asia. This time he shares some very specific insights into the upcoming Taiwanese political process. Truly insider-type observations on the situation there.

Bottom Line— This gives a line up and scorecard for the coming election; which may be Taiwan’s last. A showdown with Mainland China is coming, and our friend points out a ramp-up of Western influence and activity headed into the Taiwan election. That election outcome may slow the timeline of that future confrontation, but it is coming for sure.

About— “He” is an active hedge fund manager focused on Gold and FX markets in EU/Asia, and with whom we have discussions on topics ranging from Gold, to Geopolitics, to war risks frequently. His identity must remain anonymous.

Puppet Show: Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential election

Submitted  by GoldFix ZH Edit

As each puppet rigorously played out his part, the plot has thickened over time. Fortunately, there are some new bread crumbs and this short essay is going to lay out the clues for the like-minded, dubious, curious that live and breathe the fascinating risk-taking profession.

Clue #1: Laura Rosenberger's Frequent Taiwan Visits

The first hint comes from the unusually frequent Taiwan visits of AIT Chairwoman Laura Rosenberger. Sus, isn’t it? What are the crumbs? The people she met with each time, and more importantly, the people she did not meet. I’m not going to bother with details to waste your precious time. The inference here is that the “plot” is something both the US and China know.

Terry Gou Likely Not a Factor

The US always needs a behaving Taiwanese puppet at realm, and this time is no different. Terry Gou is a duplicitous, cunning politician wannabe who has run into enough trouble during the petition process for him to withdraw. Foxconn being investigated in China at this intriguing time [however] has little to do with his futile presidential bid.

Lai Leads as of 27th Oct

As of 27th Oct, William Lai (DPP) remains the poll leader, hovering around 34% whereas Hou (KMT) and Ko (TPP) both stand at 24%. The shit show blue – white collaboration talk has been such a drag that anyone with half a functioning brain should have known midway that the plot was already written.

These puppets have one thing in common – they are great at acting. Tension needs to be built because at the apex of negative emotions and stress, polarized civilians are the most susceptible to manipulation. This is no science. The crass conclusion here is that Lai will probably win but whoever ultimately wins the office, US has this one under control, for one last time.

Preserving Taiwan's Safety

For Taiwanese people, the only thing they need to think about and act upon (because most of their elected public servants just don’t care) is how to keep the island safe and not to lose the deteriorating status quo too quickly.

Ironically and evidently, whoever the next President is, the only solution is probably a broken, malfunctioning Congress (Legislative Yuan in the case of Taiwan) where no party has more than 1/3 of the legislators. Let that sink in.

This will likely buy time for both Taiwan and China. This will likely save a lot of not-so-innocent lives. For the islanders, most still fail to understand (heck, they probably don’t even care) that nothing can be more nefarious than bundling Taiwan in the same aid package with Ukraine and Israel. Bloody $100 billion. For heaven’s fuck’s sake, isn’t this obvious enough already.

China's Recent Developments

China: In the morning of 27th Oct, Chinese state media announced that former Premier Li Keqiang died of heart attack, two days after Li Shangfu (former Minister of National Defense) and Qin Gang (former Minister of Foreign Affairs) were officially recalled and relieved from all party duties. Nothing sus here.

 

Drawing from the “A4 Revolution” in 2022 (the Covid protest), days after that short-lived protest was dismantled, former Chairman Jiang Zemin was officially announced dead. There is no attempt at any conspiracy theory here – just stating facts that actually took place on this timeline. Symbolism matters, even more so on the highest level.

Gavin Newsom's Visit and Implications

The odd but telling thing worth mentioning though was the visit of Gavin Newsom. Again, I’m not going to bother with details here – all related news can be found online. We just need to see who Newsom got to meet, and the official statements’ content, tone, and what they may imply.

Newsom sat down with Vice Premier Han Zheng and Wang Yi before he had a face-to-face with Xi Jinping. After the meetings, Newsom mentioned that “I expressed my support for the One-China policy ... as well as our desire not to see independence” (in his own very carefully chosen words).

They talked about a variety of issues but they’re not even remotely the point of this piece. The point is why Newsom had a surprise meeting with Xi?

President Newsom?

One possible explanation is that Beijing is already gaming out different scenarios way beyond the 2024 US Presidential Election and the Chinese leadership actually thinks Newsom has a good shot.

An old Chinese idiom goes like this: Whether it is a mule or a horse, the only way to find out is to bring it out for a ride. The Chinese leadership had their read on Newsom and vice versa.

The Global Landscape

Going out on a limb here, I would even make an audacious conjecture, though totally unfounded, that due to the complex, fluid situations in the Middle East, China has had to tweak the plot. That is to imply, the ultimate showdown around the year 2027 suddenly looks like a 10 delta today.

Make no mistake, all these nuclear super powers are still preparing day and night for the showdown. The war that irreversibly changes the old world order is the one in Ukraine though, not the one in the ME.

Conclusion: Next Spring May Be Scary on Multiple Fronts

Winter is [literally] coming, so there is unlikely going to be much progress for the Russian military, though I wish to point out the number of people that have been enlisted so far this year for the military expansion plan, the revived, astonishing military industrial production capacity – The War Machine never warms up for nothing.