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DOGE is ripping through federal spending with trillion-dollar targets and historic job cuts—but TS Lombard isn’t buying the hype. Its bold claims rest on shaky evidence and could spark a recession—what happens if this gamble backfires?
Europe vs US is done. Valuation gap closed (SAP 40x, GOOG 18.5x), US tech no longer an obvious sell, and massive Q-end flows coming — valuations, flows, and seasonality all say the same thing: buy US, fade Europe.
Markets are breaking out, positioning is washed out, and $30bn in quarter-end flows could light the fuse. SPX and NASDAQ are above key trend lines, while hedge fund longs sit at 5-year lows — plenty of squeeze fuel here.