A Year After Nailing ORCL As "The First Domino", Barclays Says AI Credit's Flush Won't Be The Last As $1 Trillion In Chip Debt Looms

Almost exactly a year ago, Barclays' IG TMT credit analyst Andrew Keches did something sell-side analysts rarely do: he slapped an Underweight on a hyperscaler's debt, told clients to buy Oracle's 5Y CDS at roughly 80bps, and warned that Oracle could run out of cash by the November 2026 quarter. It is now October 2026, and Oracle CDS just printed 322bps.

So what does the man who called it do now? In a note published Tuesday titled "AI Probably Isn't Over (but Neither Is Vol)" (available to pro subs), Keches and Remy Neuhaus turn tactically bullish, recommending clients buy Oracle's lowest-dollar long bonds into next week's investor day. But there is a catch, and it's right there in the title:

"Sell First, Ask Later": Following The Beta Down