Why The Inverted Yield Curve Is Now Broken As A Recession Indicator

By Simon White, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

An inverted yield curve is no longer a reliable sign of a recession in the new monetary system of ample reserves and where the core money-market instrument is repo. The shifts in the plumbing of money markets over the last decade are as radical to finance as the invention of the iPhone was to telephony. The emergency response to the GFC and the need to move away from LIBOR - a manipulable, unsecured funding rate - as the core benchmark for money markets has led to a greatly altered financial backdrop.

One of the most significant implications is the effect on the yield curve. It has never before been inverted for this length of time, giving rise to incessant recession speculation. However, not only has a yield-curve inversion never been a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a downturn, the overhaul in the financial plumbing of the market means it is effectively now broken as a recession indicator.