Where Will Gold Trade In 2029 Under A Trump vs Harris Administration

In a must read special report from DB's Michael Hsueh (available here for pro subscribers), the commodities strategist takes a look at how the best performing asset of 2024 will fare in the next five years, assuming the status quo, but more importantly modeling a Trump vs Harris administration. The results are startling... and encouraging for gold bulls.

As Huseh notes, Gold's perceived safe haven quality means it can be an all-inclusive expression of anxiety about departures from the status quo. As such, gold's election reaction will be dominated by the disruptive breaks in trade, immigration and foreign policy indicated by former President Trump. From this, DB analyst says, it would follow the intuition that this tips the balance in favor of gold higher on a Trump victory (+2%%), and gold lower on a Harris victory (-2%). Then again, as Goldman also noted, Hsueh would expect a gold sell-off to be short-lived as Asian import and central bank demand would balance against speculative futures outflow.

Separately, Gold's positive response to higher federal debt growth is unambiguous, and it is hardly a secret that debt is going much, much higher. Some, such as DB, expect a higher trajectory of debt growth resulting from Trump budget plans, although budget scoring for a potential Harris administration also shows upside deviation from baseline. In other words, no matter who is in the White House, the US debt in 5 years will be much higher. That said, a Trump administration without import tariffs is the high outlier trajectory for the federal debt, implying a  gold price of USD 4,150/oz at end-2029 compared with a baseline of USD 3,730/oz at end-2029.