What Happens Next If Global Real Yields Continue Higher? Goldman Spoiler Alert: 'Nothing Good'

Markets have shifted into a real rate–driven tightening regime, according to Goldman's Vitali Meschoulam (Global Head of Market Strats), with the recent rise in nominal yields (+~25bp in UST 10y) almost entirely explained by higher real yields (to ~2.1–2.2%) while breakevens remain anchored around ~2.4%.

The move has been evident not just in the US but across Europe and parts of EM, where higher nominal yields have similarly been driven primarily by rising real yields rather than inflation expectations. 

Implications: