• US stocks suffered amid the broad risk-off mood on Friday in which equity markets were hit across the board with underperformance in the Nasdaq and the vast majority of sectors were red as declines were led by steep losses seen in Communication, Consumer Discretionary and Technology. The selling pressure was likely influenced ahead of month and quarter-end, as well as the upcoming key risks including US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd "Liberation Day.
• US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.
• US President Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Putin this week and warned he will put 25%-50% secondary tariffs on all Russian oil if they are unable to make a deal on Ukraine. Trump also said he was very angry when Putin criticised Zelensky’s credibility and noted that Putin’s comments on Zelensky were not going in the right direction.
• US President Trump said US and Iranian officials are talking, while he threatened a “bombing” and secondary tariffs on Iran if Tehran does not make a deal on a nuclear program with the US, according to an NBC interview.
• Some large cloud customers are reportedly slowing down their spending on AI services through cloud providers such as Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) as prices of AI drop, according to The Information.
• Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean & Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, New Zealand ANZ Business Surveys, Australian Private Sector Credit, Chinese Official PMIs, Supply from Australia & Japan, Holiday Closures in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, India and across the Middle East for Eid al-Fitr.
• UK clocks moved forward by an hour over the weekend to British Summer Time which means the time difference between London and New York is back to five hours.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• UK clocks moved forward by an hour over the weekend to British Summer Time which means the time difference between London and New York is back to five hours.
• Highlights include South Korean & Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, New Zealand ANZ Business Surveys, Australian Private Sector Credit, Chinese Official PMIs, Supply from Australia & Japan, Holiday Closures in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, India and across the Middle East for Eid al-Fitr.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks suffered amid the broad risk-off mood on Friday in which equity markets were hit across the board with underperformance in the Nasdaq and the vast majority of sectors were red as declines were led by steep losses seen in Communication, Consumer Discretionary and Technology. The selling pressure was likely influenced ahead of month and quarter-end, as well as the upcoming key risks including US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd "Liberation Day".
• SPX -1.96% at 5,581, NDX -2.61% at 19,281, DJI -1.69% at 41,584, RUT -2.05% at 2,024.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.
• US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico.
• US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honour the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump’s ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe.
• US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about USD 100bln and the other tariffs are to raise about USD 600bln a year, according to a Fox interview.
• UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg.
• French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable.
• German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium.
• Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from protectionism, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump wouldn’t rule out seeking a third term and said there are ways to do it, according to NBC.
• White House reportedly plans to kill the funding in a new budget for a Boeing (BA)-built rocket designed for NASA to take astronauts to the moon and beyond, while terminating Boeing’s Space Launch System could free up billions of dollars which SpaceX officials said could be reallocated for NASA’s Mars efforts, according to WSJ.
• Some large cloud customers are reportedly slowing down their spending on AI services through cloud providers such as Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) as prices of AI drop, according to The Information.

COMMODITIES

• US is to revoke authorisations to foreign partners of Venezuela’s PDVSA that allowed them to export oil, according to sources cited by Reuters.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• IDF began ground activity in an area inside Rafah to expand the security zone in southern Gaza, while Israel reportedly sent a counter-proposal on the Gaza deal, according to Bloomberg.
• Hamas political chief Khalil Al-Hayya said Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal they received two days ago, while he stated that Hamas will not disarm as long as the Israeli occupation exists.
• US President Trump said US and Iranian officials are talking, while he threatened a “bombing” and secondary tariffs on Iran if Tehran does not make a deal on a nuclear program with the US, according to an NBC interview. It was separately reported that Iran said it rejected direct US talks in a reply to Trump’s letter, according to Bloomberg.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Putin this week and warned he will put 25%-50% secondary tariffs on all Russian oil if they are unable to make a deal on Ukraine. Trump also said he was very angry when Putin criticised Zelensky’s credibility and noted that Putin’s comments on Zelensky were not going in the right direction.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said it is impossible to ignore nearly daily mass Russian drone attacks and Ukraine expects a strong response to these attacks from the US, Europe and others. Zelensky added that Ukraine is maintaining active measures on the front line and inside Russia to ensure no Russian troops can enter the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
• Ukraine was reported on Sunday morning to have destroyed 65 out of 111 drones launched by Russia during an overnight attack.
• There are reportedly serious preparations underway for Ukrainian President Zelensky to run for the presidency a second time and he is said to have tasked his team with organising a vote after a full ceasefire, aiming for summer 2025, according to The Economist. It was separately reported that Kyiv is to seek more US investments in talks over an economic deal.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Ukraine has continued attacks against Russian energy infrastructure in violation of the limited ceasefire agreement and attacked power grids in the Belgorod region leaving 9,000 residents without power. Russia’s Defence Ministry also said it has completed the liberation of the town of Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while it was also reported that Russian forces took control of Veselivka in Ukraine’s Sumy region.

OTHER

• US Defence Secretary Hegseth said Japan is an indispensable partner in deterring China and the US will sustain a robust presence in the Indo-Pacific, while he added the US military needs expanded access to Japan’s southwest islands and has started upgrading its military command in Japan. Furthermore, Japan’s Defence Minister said they have agreed with the US to accelerate efforts to jointly air-to-air missiles and will look at the possibility of joint production of SM6 surface-to-air missiles.
• Chinese military said it conducted a routine patrol in the South China Sea on Friday, while it added the Philippines has frequently enlisted foreign countries to organise so-called joint patrols and created destabilising factors in the South China Sea.
• Greenland’s PM said that he wants to make it clear the US won’t get control of Greenland.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• China’s Commerce Minister held talks on Friday with the visiting EU Trade and Economic Security Commissioner.
• China unveiled a plan to ramp up high-standard farmland development to ensure food security.
• China’s Finance Ministry will inject USD 69bln into four of the nation’s largest state banks via their share placements with the Finance Ministry to be the top investor in planned private placements by Bank of Communications, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. to raise up to a combined CNY 520bln or around USD 72bln through additional offerings of mainland-traded stocks, according to filings on Sunday.
• PBoC said it punished two internet users who spread rate-cut rumours to gain attention and attract online followers, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese state media said the CK Hutchison (1 HK) port deal does not conform to business logic and involves major national interests, while it added that selling the port is equal to handing a knife to the opponent and the Co. should carefully handle deals that may harm national interests.
• Japan’s Financial Services Agency plans to revise the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to officially recognise crypto assets as financial products, according to Nikkei.
• South Korean Finance Minister Choi said the government will submit a KRW 10tln supplementary budget to respond to wildfires and slumping growth.
• South Korean, Japanese and Chinese trade ministers agreed to strengthen cooperation on stabilising the supply chain and enhancing predictability in a trade environment, while they also agreed to closely cooperate on a trilateral free trade agreement and promote regional trade.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Dutch pension funds are set to invest EUR 100bln into risky assets boosting Europe’s defence efforts, according to FT citing APG Asset Management’s chief executive.
• US President Trump had an informal meeting with Finland’s President Stubb and said they look forward to strengthening the partnership between the US and Finland which includes the purchase and development of a large number of badly needed icebreakers for the US.