Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open
- US stocks closed mostly firmer on Friday with the SPX and NDX both notching their third consecutive positive week following the US jobs data and ahead of this week's US CPI.
- US President-elect Trump said he cannot guarantee Americans will not pay more as a result of tariffs, according to NBC's Meet the Press.
- Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime.
- Israeli official said that in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, according to Kann News.
- South Korean President Yoon survived an impeachment motion in the opposition-led parliament on Saturday after members of his party boycotted the vote.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Final GDP and Chinese CPI
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SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
- US stocks closed mostly firmer on Friday with the SPX and NDX both notching their third consecutive positive week and rising to fresh records following the November US jobs report, which keeps the Fed on course to cut at the December 18th announcement.
- Eyes now turn to the US CPI report on Wednesday to cement expectations, with current pricing suggesting an ~85% chance of a 25bps Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
- SPX +0.25% at 6,090.27, NDX +0.81% at 19,859.77, DJIA -0.28% at 44,642.52 , RUT +0.54% at 2,408.99.
US PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP'S WEEKEND INTERVIEW
- US President-elect Trump said he cannot guarantee Americans will not pay more as a result of tariffs, according to NBC's Meet the Press.
- Trump said he does not have plans now to ask Powell to step down as Fed Chair.
- Trump said he absolutely would consider exiting NATO.
- Trump also said he doesn’t plan to divest from Truth Social (DJT).
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said for the Fed to change policy direction, data will need to show inflation is not heading to target or the jobs market looks like its overheating. A gradual pace of cuts seems appropriate. Hopes the Fed gets to neutral by end-2025. Economic conditions will determine the pace of cuts. The speed at which the Fed is moving will probably slow as the debate proceeds on a stopping point. Will be watching rate sensitive sectors, and the lagged impact of policy, for signs that neutral is approaching. The outlook matters so when the Administration proposes new policies, the Fed will look at it. A single months' data is not reliable, but if the Household Survey were to show deterioration, the Fed would look more closely.
- Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the labour market is in a good, balanced position.
- Fed's Hammack (2024 Voter) said the Fed is at or near time to slow pace of rate cuts, and is open mind about the December FOMC meeting, more data is incoming. The market view of one cut between November and late January is reasonable. The slowing pace of rate cuts allows Fed time to sound the economy.The economic landscape calls for 'modestly restrictive' monetary policy. Expect solid growth, low unemployment, and gradual inflation ebbing. Data will drive what the Fed does with monetary policy. Monetary policy is likely "somewhat restrictive". Fed has more work to do to cool inflation. The economy is strong and labour market is healthy. Labour market has become better balanced.
- Trump aides reportedly contacted Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Snap (SNAP) over online drug sales, according to The Information.
- Meta (META) rolls out internal AI tool as it pushes into business market, according to the FT.
- Apple (AAPL) plans 3-year modem chip rollout in bid to outdo Qualcomm (QCOM), according to Bloomberg; to continue using Broadcom (AVGO) and Skyworks (SWKS) parts in its devices.
DATA RECAP
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (Nov) 227.0k vs. Exp. 200.0k (Prev. 12.0k, Rev. 36k); two month net revisions +56k (prev. -112k).
- US Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%); unrounded 4.246%
- US Average Earnings YY (Nov) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%)
- US Average Earnings MM (Nov) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%).
- US Average Workweek Hrs (Nov) 34.3hrs vs. Exp. 34.3hrs (Prev. 34.3hrs, Rev. 34.2hrs).
- US U6 Underemployment (Nov) 7.8% (Prev. 7.7%)
- US Labor Force Partic (Nov) 62.5% (Prev. 62.6%)
- US Government Payrolls (Nov) 33.0k (Prev. 40.0k, Rev. 38k)
- US Total Net Birth-Death Forecast (Nov): 5k (prev. 368k)
- US U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim (Dec) 2.9% (Prev. 2.6%)
- US U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim (Dec) 3.1% (Prev. 3.2%)
- US U Mich Conditions Prelim (Dec) 77.7 (Prev. 63.9)
- US U Mich Sentiment Prelim (Dec) 74.0 vs. Exp. 73.0 (Prev. 71.8)
- US U Mich Expectations Prelim (Dec) 71.6 (Prev. 76.9)
- Canadian Employment Change (Nov) 50.5k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 14.5k)
- Canadian Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.5%)
- Canadian Participation Rate (Nov) 65.1% (Prev. 64.8%)
- Canadian Part Time Employment Chng SA (Nov) -3.6k (Prev. -11.2k)
- Canadian Full Time Employment Chng SA (Nov) 54.2k (Prev. 25.6k)
COMMODITIES
- Saudi Arabia set January Arab Light crude OSP to Asia at +USD 0.90 vs Oman/Dubai average (prev. +USD 1.70); NW Europe at -USD 1.25 vs ICE Brent (prev. -0.15); United States at +USD 3.80 vs ASCI (prev. +USD 3.80), according to Reuters.
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil rigs + 5 at 482; NatGas rigs +2 at 102; total rigs +7 to 589.
- Polish pipeline operator Pern said it has restored proper operation of first branch of Western Druzhba pipeline after incident on December 1st, according to Reuters.
- PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime.
- Syria's ousted President Bashar al Assad has arrived in Moscow, according Russian state media. Kremlin sources suggested a deal has been done to ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Reuters.
- IDF called Syria 'fourth front', according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israeli military was instructed to seize the buffer zone and control points in order to ensure the protection of all Israeli communities in the Golan Heights, according to Israeli Defence Minister Katz.
- Israeli official said that in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of the rebels, according to Kann's Stein.
- Israel's Channel 13 said "Israeli intelligence is monitoring what is happening in Iran for fear that the collapse of the axis loyal to it will push it to develop nuclear weapons", according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel's Channel 13 said "The Israeli army is considering continuing the incursion into Syrian territory to expand the buffer zone in the Golan., according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said the fall of Assad was a direct result of blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran by Israel, and added that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on its borders, according to Reuters.
- Hezbollah pulled all forces out of Syria on Saturday, according to Lebanese security sources cited by Reuters.
- US encouraged Iraq to not get drawn into Syrian unrest, according to a Senior US official cited by Reuters, and US has been in discussions with Turkish officials and US focus is "a new Syria". Senior US official does not see role for US troops on the ground addressing chemical weapons in Syria.
- US Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State camps in central Syria on Sunday, and struck over 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden said the US will support Syria's neighbours through period of transition, and will speak with leaders in region in coming days and send administration officials, according to Reuters.
- US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces said they are still fighting Turkish-backed forces in Syria's Manbij, according to Reuters.
- Iran said it will monitor developments in Syria and the region closely, and will adopt appropriate approaches and positions, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, adding that the long-standing and friendly relations between the Iranian and Syrian nations are expected to continue.
- "Iranian Foreign Minister: Conflicts are expected to spread not only to Iraq but to the entire region", according to Sky News Arabia.
OTHER
- US president-elect Trump said there should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in Ukraine this is time for Russia's Putin to act, and China can help, via Truth Social.
- US president-elect Trump, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had "very good conversation" over the weekend, according to a source close to Macron cited by Reuters.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China reportedly has big room to raise the fiscal deficit, according to Xinhua.
- China’s regulators will try to bolster the property market with improved policies on land usage, tax and other financial measures, according to Xinhua.
- South Korean President Yoon survived an impeachment motion in the opposition-led parliament on Saturday after members of his party boycotted the vote - with too few members present to pass the measure as voting began., according to Reuters.
- South Korea's opposition party to propose new impeachment bill on December 11 for vote on December 14, according to Yonhap.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French Socialist leader said ready to contribute to breaking political gridlock, but need a change of political direction; priorities include changing pensions system; only PM from the left can bring political change.
- Fitch affirmed Hungary at "BBB", revised outlook to "Stable" from "Negative"
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