Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks gained on Friday with outperformance in the Russell 2k on the prospects of a strong US economy following the stellar September NFP report and sectors closed predominantly in the green in which Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Communication led the gains, while defensive sectors such as Real Estate, Utilities and Health Care underperformed. All attention was on the September jobs report in which the headline NFP printed at 252k to top all analyst forecasts (consensus 140k, max estimate 220k), while the unemployment rate dipped and wages accelerated. This spurred a bid in stocks and the dollar while Treasuries tumbled with the curve bear flattening as 50bps bets were momentarily fully unwound with money markets currently pricing a 99% probability for a 25bps cut for November.
Israel conducted a strike on a mosque in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip which killed at least five people and wounded 20, while it also continued its wave of airstrikes on Lebanon in what was the heaviest 24 hours of bombing since it stepped up its campaign against Hezbollah.
Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Foreign Reserves & Leading Index, Australian MI Inflation Gauge, Thai CPI, Holiday Closure in China.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

Highlights include Japanese Foreign Reserves & Leading Index, Australian MI Inflation Gauge, Thai CPI, Holiday Closure in China.
Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

US stocks gained on Friday with outperformance in the Russell 2k on the prospects of a strong US economy following the stellar September NFP report and sectors closed predominantly in the green in which Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Communication led the gains, while defensive sectors such as Real Estate, Utilities and Health Care underperformed. All attention was on the September jobs report in which the headline NFP printed at 252k to top all analyst forecasts (consensus 140k, max estimate 220k), while the unemployment rate dipped and wages accelerated. This spurred a bid in stocks and the dollar while Treasuries tumbled with the curve bear flattening as 50bps bets were momentarily fully unwound with money markets currently pricing a 99% probability for a 25bps cut for November.
SPX +0.90% at 5,751, NDX +1.22% at 20,035, DJIA +0.81% at 42,353, RUT +1.50% at 2,213.
Click here for a detailed summary.

DATA RECAP

US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep) 254k vs. Exp. 140k (Prev. 142k, Rev. 159k)
US Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
US Average Earnings YY (Sep) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%, Rev. 3.9%)

COMMODITIES

Saudi Arabia set the November Arab Light Crude Official Selling Price to Asia at a premium of USD 2.20 vs Oman/Dubai and to NW Europe at minus USD 0.45/bbl vs ICE Brent, while it set the OSP to the US at plus USD 3.90/bbl vs ASCI.
Qatar set the November Marine Crude Official Selling Price at a premium of USD 1.00/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and Land Crude OSP at a premium of USD 0.85/bbl vs Oman/Dubai.
Iraq’s Kerala refinery is undergoing extensive maintenance which started on September 25th and is currently non-operational with the maintenance expected to last for around a month, according to a source with direct knowledge cited by Reuters.
Italy’s ENI (ENI IM) is in talks with Japan on supplying LNG to the country.
Goldman Sachs sees Brent to trade in the USD 70-85/bbl range and forecasts an average price of USD 77/bbl in Q4 2024 and USD 76/bbl for 2025. Goldman Sachs added that assuming a 2mln bpd 6-month disruption to Iranian supply, it estimates that Brent could temporarily rise to a peak of USD 90/bbl if OPEC rapidly offsets the shortfall.
NHC said tropical storm Milton is about 845 miles west-southwest of Tampa Florida and that the risk of life-threatening impacts is increasing for portions of Florida's west coast.
TotalEnergies (TTE FP) is considering a foray into copper trading, according to a top executive.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

Israel conducted a strike on a mosque in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip which killed at least five people and wounded 20, according to Reuters.
Israel continued its wave of airstrikes on Lebanon in what was the heaviest 24 hours of bombing since it stepped up its campaign against Hezbollah, according to a report on Sunday by FT.
Lebanese media reported rocket barrages fired from Lebanon towards the Galilee and the Haifa area in Israel, according to Asharq News.
Israel’s military issued new evacuation alerts on Sunday for areas in southern Lebanon, while it separately announced that areas of Manara, Yiftah and Malkia in northern Israel declared a closed military zone, according to Reuters.
Israel’s military announced changes to the Home Front defensive guidelines which apply to several areas including communities near the Gaza Strip in which gatherings of up to 2,000 participants will be permitted and the activity scale will be changed to partial activity in a number of central Galilee communities, while the rest of the country’s guidelines remain unchanged, according to Reuters.
Israeli military spokesperson said their response to Iran’s missile attack will come at the timing that Israel decides is best, while the spokesperson confirmed that two Israeli airbases were hit in Iran’s attack on Tuesday but noted its air force and the bases remain fully operational, according to Reuters.
Israel’s military said Hamas official Muhammad Hussein Ali Al-Mahmoud who served as Hamas’s executive authority in Lebanon and Hamas military wing in Lebanon member Said Alaa Naif Ali were killed by an Israeli air strike and operation on Saturday. It was also reported that a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine was ‘unreachable’ since Israeli air strikes on Friday.
Hamas official said Israel is blocking a ceasefire agreement despite Hamas’s flexibility and urged world countries to stop the double-standards policy over Gaza and Lebanon, according to Reuters.
Hezbollah political official Qmati said Hezbollah is now being jointly led internally and picking a new Secretary-General will take some time, while he responded that Israel is not allowing a search to progress when asked about the fate of Hezbollah’s senior official Hashem Safieddine.
Iranian security officials said Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, who travelled to Lebanon, has not been heard from since Israeli strikes on Beirut last week, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Oil Minister said he was not worried about the crisis amid reports of Israeli threats to strike Iran’s oil facilities, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Mehr news agency cited an official who stated all flights were cancelled in Iran’s airports from Sunday at 21:00 (18:30BST/13:30EDT) to Monday at 06:00 (03:30BST/22:30EDT). However, it was later reported that all flight restrictions were lifted after ensuring favourable and safe conditions.
Syria confronted hostile targets in the central region, according to state TV.
US Secretary of Defense Austin will host Israeli Defence Minister Gallant at the Pentagon on October 9th to discuss the ongoing Middle East security developments.
US State Department commented regarding the latest Israeli bombing of Lebanon in which it stated that military pressure at times can enable diplomacy but could also lead to miscalculation and that Israel has a right to pursue extremist targets but civilian infrastructure should not be targeted. Furthermore, it stated that the US is continuing discussions with Israel and that the US goal is to reach a ceasefire to provide space for diplomacy, according to Reuters.

OTHER

Ukraine’s air forces said on Sunday morning that Russia launched 87 drones and 3 missiles at Ukraine.
Russia took control of the settlement of Zhelanne Druhe in Ukraine, according to IFX.
Netherlands’s Defence Minister pledged EUR 400mln for a drone action plan with Ukraine.
Chinese hackers reportedly breached US court wiretap systems, according to WSJ.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Chinese officials will brief on economic policy implementation with the state planner to conduct a news conference on Tuesday at 10:00 local time (03:00BST/22:00EDT).

EU/UK