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US stocks were pressured heading into the close after a choppy session amid mixed data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Tuesday, Mar 26, 2024 - 09:53 PM
  • US stocks finished the session in the red after late selling and with the declines led by underperformance in Utilities, Energy and Tech, while price action had earlier been choppy following a mixed set of data releases. T-notes also saw two-way price action with initial pressure in response to the stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data before gradually reversing which was facilitated by a strong 5yr auction.
  • USD was relatively flat and remained above the 104.00 level with news flow light and in the absence of any Fed commentary, while data releases were mixed and garnered little market reaction as Durable Goods for February was stronger than expected but March Consumer Confidence underwhelmed.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Australian MI Leading Index & Monthly CPI, Chinese Industrial Profits, Comments from BoJ's Tamura, Supply from Australia & Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • Highlights include Australian MI Leading Index & Monthly CPI, Chinese Industrial Profits, Comments from BoJ's Tamura, Supply from Australia & Japan.
  • Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

  • US stocks finished the session in the red after late selling and with the declines led by underperformance in Utilities, Energy and Tech, while price action had earlier been choppy following a mixed set of data releases. T-notes also saw two-way price action with initial pressure in response to the stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data before gradually reversing which was facilitated by a strong 5yr auction.
  • SPX -0.28% at 5,203, NDX -0.36% at 18,210, DJIA -0.08% at 39,282, RUT -0.19% at 2,070.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

DATA RECAP

  • US Consumer Confidence (Mar) 104.7 vs. Exp. 107.0 (Prev. 106.7. Rev. 104.8)
  • US Durable Goods (Feb) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. -6.2%, Rev. -6.9%)
  • US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments (Mar) -14.0 (Prev. -15.0)
  • US Richmond Fed Services Index (Mar) -7.0 (Prev. -16.0)
  • US Richmond Fed Composite Index (Mar) -11.0 (Prev. -5.0)
  • US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing (Mar) Business Activity -18.3 (prev. -8.8)
  • US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing (Mar) New Orders -3.9 (prev. -4.7)
  • US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing (Mar) Full Time Employment 3.5 (prev. 9.1)
  • US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing (Mar) Wage/Benefit Cost Index 35.3 (prev. 34.4)
  • US CaseShiller 20 MM SA (Jan) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
  • US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (Jan) 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.7% (Prev. 6.1%, Rev. 6.2%)

FX

  • USD was relatively flat and remained above the 104.00 level with news flow light and in the absence of any Fed commentary, while data releases were mixed and garnered little market reaction as Durable Goods for February was stronger than expected but March Consumer Confidence underwhelmed.
  • EUR failed to sustain early gains as the latest ECB comments suggested the possibility of a June cut.
  • GBP faded the initial advances and returned to flat territory despite comments from BoE’s Mann who stated they can hold the bank rate for quite some time and that markets are pricing in too many rate cuts.
  • JPY slightly softened against the dollar in which USD/JPY modestly climbed above the 151.50 level.

FIXED INCOME

  • Treasuries were choppy in response to strong Durable Goods data and a solid 5yr auction.

COMMODITIES

  • Oil prices were ultimately lower despite the ongoing geopolitical climate with no progress in Gaza talks and suspected Israeli air strikes in northeast Lebanon which is the furthest bombardment from the border so far. Furthermore, sources noted OPEC+ is unlikely to change output policy before the June meeting and no policy recommendation is expected at next week's JMMC meeting, while there was also late selling pressure after bearish private sector crude inventory data.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +9.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -4.4mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing +2.4mln.
  • OPEC+ is unlikely to change output policy before the June meeting and no policy recommendation is expected at next week's JMMC meeting, according to Reuters sources.
  • Russian oil refining capacity shut down by Ukrainian drone attacks stands at 14%, according to Reuters calculations.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

  • Israeli official said hostage talks with Hamas are at a dead end and that Israeli negotiators packed up and left Doha, while it was earlier reported that Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks continued with Mossad officials to remain in Doha and a small Mossad team was returning to Israel for consultations on developments.
  • Suspected Israeli air strikes hit northeast Lebanon in the furthest bombardment from the border so far in the conflict, according to Reuters citing security forces.
  • Israeli security sources confirmed that they bombed targets belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in eastern Syria, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • White House said National Security Advisor Sullivan and Israeli Defence Minister Gallant had a productive meeting.
  • US sanctions are to target finance and trade facilitators for Houthis, Hezbollah and Iran's Quds force in which it is targeting six entities, one individual and two tankers registered in Liberia, India, Lebanon and Kuwait.
  • Yemeni Houthis announced six military operations against four American and British ships and two American destroyers, while it is targeting Um Al-Rashrash (Eilat) in southern occupied Palestine. It was separately reported that Houthis warned that Saudi Arabia would be a target if it backs US-UK strikes, according to Energy Intel's Bakr.

OTHER

  • NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that stray too close to its borders, according to a report in Polish news outlet RMF24.
  • French Defence Minister said they might requisition production capacities to speed up arms production in particular for supporting Ukraine.
  • Russia's Defence Ministry said a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet escorted two US bombers over the Barents Sea, according to Interfax.
  • Belarusian President Lukashenko is to inspect military drills carried out as part of a combat readiness check, according to Reuters citing a Telegram channel.
  • Japan PM Kishida plans to continue efforts to resolve issues with North Korea based on existing policy.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said the crux of China's US-relations lies in the US’ position of China as the most important strategic competitor and this has led to problems in bilateral relations, while he added the US should work with China to enhance mutual understanding through face to face exchanges.
  • China initiated WTO dispute settlement proceedings against the US over interests in the EV industry.
  • USTR Office said the US mission to WTO received a consultation request from China regarding parts of the IRA and US is reviewing the request.
  • WTO said regarding the Australia-China trade dispute that the panel recommended Australia bring its measures into conformity with its obligations under the GATT 1993 and anti-dumping agreement.
  • Japan's Business Lobby Chief said USD/JPY beyond 150.00 is excessive, according to Kyodo.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • BoE's Mann said she switched to an unchanged rate vote based on consumer behaviour, labour demand and supply, and the financial market curve, while she added they can hold the bank rate for quite some time. Mann also stated that markets are perhaps a bit too complacent when it comes to how long the BoE can hold rates and that markets are pricing in too many rate cuts. Furthermore, she said that in some ways they do not have to cut because the market already is in terms of the implications for the market curve and mortgage rates, while she avoided giving a prediction on the number of 2024 rate cuts.
  • ECB's Muller said data can confirm the inflation trend for the ECB's June meeting and that the ECB is closer to the point of cutting rates.
  • ECB's Stournaras said it appears that there is a consensus for a June rate reduction.
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