US stocks were flat in calmness ahead of this week's potential storm - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks finished flat with price action calm before the potential storm as participants await key risk events including US CPI on Wednesday and with several central bank decisions from the ECB, BoC and RBNZ, while the FOMC Minutes are scheduled mid-week and earnings season also kick-starts later in the week. As such, the major indices were little changed although the Russell 2000 outperformed.
USD slightly weakened with pressure seen as US participants arrived at their desks although trade was relatively rangebound and the DXY held on the 104.00 level, while the only data release for the US was the NY Fed SCE which was mixed and saw the one-year inflation expectations remain at 3%.
Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence & NAB Business Survey, Japanese Household Confidence, Comments from Fed's Kashkari, Supply from Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

Highlights include New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence & NAB Business Survey, Japanese Household Confidence, Comments from Fed's Kashkari, Supply from Japan.
Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

US stocks finished flat with price action calm before the potential storm as participants await key risk events including US CPI on Wednesday and with several central bank decisions from the ECB, BoC and RBNZ, while the FOMC Minutes are scheduled mid-week and earnings season also kick-starts later in the week. As such, the major indices were little changed although the Russell 2000 outperformed.
SPX -0.04% at 5,202, NDX -0.05% at 18,100, DJIA -0.03% at 38,892, RUT +0.50% at 2,073.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter) said Fed’s lender of last resort system is functioning well and the economy was on a golden path in 2023, while he added the economy remains strong and jobs data confirms that.

DATA RECAP

NY FED SCE (MAR) one-year inflation expectations remained at 3% (prev. 3% in Feb), three-year expectations rose to 2.9% (prev. 2.7%) and five-year declined to 2.6% (prev. 2.9%).

FX

USD slightly weakened with pressure seen as US participants arrived at their desks although trade was relatively rangebound and the DXY held on the 104.00 level, while the only data release for the US was the NY Fed SCE which was mixed and saw the one-year inflation expectations remain at 3%.
EUR edged mild gains as the dollar softened and after data releases from Germany which were varied with Trade figures mixed but Industrial Output topped forecasts and surged by 2.1%.
GBP marginally benefitted from the pressure in the greenback but with upside in GBP/USD capped by resistance at its 50-DMA which was at 1.2664 and with its 200-DMA also lingering nearby.
JPY was relatively rangebound on the day although USD/JPY briefly approached closer to the 152.00 level where it topped out at 151.94 before reversing some of its gains.
SNB Chair Jordan said the central bank is evaluating providing financial institutions with CHF central bank money in tokenised form and is looking at how monetary policy operations can be settled using CHF wholesale CBDC.

FIXED INCOME

Treasuries extended on Friday's post-NFP sell-off in the run-up to supply and US CPI.

COMMODITIES

Oil prices were lower but were well off earlier troughs seen after there was no escalation in geopolitical tensions over the weekend and with initial progress reported in ceasefire talks. However, since then it has been made clear that gaps remain with the latest update from Hamas noting they reject Israel's latest ceasefire proposal and Israeli PM Netanyahu also announced that a date has been set for a Rafah invasion.
Mexico's Pemex is reportedly planning to cut at least 330k BPD of crude exports in May, according to sources via Reuters.
Libya NOC set April Es Sider crude oil OSP at dated Brent minus USD 0.55/bbl, according to Reuters citing sources.
Iraq set May 2024 Basrah Medium Crude OSP to Asia at par with Oman/Dubai Average (vs prev. USD -0.60/bbl), while OSP to Europe was set at USD -5.15/bbl vs dated Brent (prev. USD -5.85/bbl) and to the US was set at USD -0.90/bbl vs ASCI (prev. USD -0.95/bbl).
Iraq completed the first stage of repairing the oil export pipeline to Turkey which is to be operational by the end of April and said it is ready to export 350k BPD from the northern oilfields, according to the Deputy Oil Minister cited by Reuters.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that a date has been set for a Rafah invasion in Gaza.
Israeli Broadcasting Authority said any Israeli movement in Rafah will not begin before the end of the talks with Washington and the issue of launching the ground operation in Rafah depends on the hostage deal, if it is reached, according to Sky News Arabia.
US State Department said the US has not been briefed on a date for Israel's Rafah invasion.
White House said CIA Director Burns was in Cairo over the weekend for hostage negotiations where a proposal was presented to Hamas and they are waiting on a response. Furthermore, it said there is no date set for new Rafah talks and the Israelis assured them that there would be no major military operation in Rafah before holding a meeting about it to exchange ideas. White House also commented that there are no indications of an imminent major ground operation in Rafah and that more than 300 trucks entered Gaza on Sunday which is progress.
Israeli Defence Minister said Hamas has stopped operating in the Gaza Strip as a military organisation after its strikes and stated that they have reached an appropriate point to make difficult decisions on the return of detainees, according to Al Arabiya.
Hamas official said no progress has been made yet in Cairo ceasefire talks and it was later reported that Hamas rejected the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal, according to Hamas official Ali Baraka. Hamas sources had earlier commented that the Israeli response does not include a permanent ceasefire or a withdrawal from the Gaza strip and the Israeli response requires the return of the displaced to shelters, according to Al Jazeera.
Missiles have been launched from Syria towards the southern Golan Heights, according to Deir Ezzor 24’s Omar Abu Layla.
Turkey vowed to take measures against Israel over Gaza aid drops after Israel rejected a request from Turkey to airdrop aid into Gaza, according to Bloomberg.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said Washington bears responsibility for the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and that the Zionist entity will be punished with the coming days to be difficult days for the Zionist entity. Furthermore, he stated the Zionist entity’s crime against their embassy in Damascus was carried out using American missiles and aircraft and America gave the green light to the Zionist entity to attack the consulate, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

A Ukrainian drone was downed over the roof of the Zaporzhzhia nuclear plant power unit although no damage was detected, according to Russian-installed plant staff.
Russia's ambassador to the IAEA posted on X that Russia has requested an extraordinary session of the IAEA's board of governors on "recent attacks and provocations" of Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

ASIA-PAC