US stocks were choppy and mostly finished with marginal gains after largely ignoring weak data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were choppy and finished relatively rangebound albeit with most major indices in the green after the latest US data releases were largely ignored, while the initial downside in the indices during the NY morning was unwound later in the session with the help of a rebound in Apple (AAPL) shares after reports that it had abandoned its EV venture and is shifting its attention to AI ventures.
• USD was flat with the DXY contained within a relatively tight parameter beneath the 104.00 level as participants await the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Furthermore, price action was ultimately unfazed by weaker US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods data, while recent Fed rhetoric also had little effect as Fed's Bowman reiterated that she will remain "cautious" on monetary policy.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Construction Work Done & Monthly CPI, Japanese Leading Index, RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference, Taiwan Holiday Closure.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Australian Construction Work Done & Monthly CPI, Japanese Leading Index, RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference, Taiwan Holiday Closure.
• Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were choppy and finished relatively rangebound albeit with most major indices in the green after the latest US data releases were largely ignored, while the initial downside in the indices during the NY morning was unwound later in the session with the help of a rebound in Apple (AAPL) shares after reports that it had abandoned its EV venture and is shifting its attention to AI ventures.
• SPX +0.17% at 5,078, NDX +0.21% at 17,971, DJIA -0.25% at 38,792, RUT +1.34% at 2,056.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Bowman (voter) reiterated that she will remain "cautious" on monetary policy and if inflation moves sustainably to the 2% goal, it will eventually be appropriate to cut interest rates but they are not yet there. Bowman said reducing the policy rate too soon could result in the need for future rate hikes and she remains willing to raise the policy rate if inflation progress stalls or reverses, while she added the latest inflation data suggests slower progress on inflation.
• Fed's Barr (voter) said Wall Street banks must do more on counterparty risks and should bolster how they assess the credit risk of trading partners and their leverage.
• US President Biden said they need to find a solution to funding the government and he thinks they can do that.
• US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said they had a productive and intense meeting, while they are making good progress and he hopes they can get it done quickly. Furthermore, he is cautiously optimistic they can do what they need to do in the next few days to avoid a US government shutdown.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US economy is doing extraordinarily well but would not be surprised if growth came in under 3.1%.
• Apple (AAPL) is cancelling its effort to build an electric car and will shift many car project workers to the generative AI effort and some car employees will be cut but it is unclear how many, according to Bloomberg sources.

DATA RECAP

• US Consumer Confidence (Feb) 106.7 vs. Exp. 115.0 (Prev. 114.8, Rev. 110.9)
• US Durable Goods (Jan) -6.1% vs. Exp. -4.5% (Rev. -0.3%)
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments (Feb) -15.0 (Prev. -15.0)
• US Richmond Fed Services Index (Feb) -16.0 (Prev. 4.0)
• US Richmond Fed Composite Index (Feb) -5.0 (Prev. -15.0)
• US CaseShiller 20 MM SA (Dec) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 0.2%)
• US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (Dec) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 5.4%)

FX

• USD was flat with the DXY contained within a relatively tight parameter beneath the 104.00 level as participants await the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Furthermore, price action was ultimately unfazed by weaker US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods data, while recent Fed rhetoric also had little effect as Fed's Bowman reiterated that she will remain "cautious" on monetary policy.
• EUR traded indecisively on both sides of 1.0850, while Goldman's FX spot desk believes volume could shake up when we get the European inflation data on Thursday.
• GBP was little changed with price action contained by resistance at 1.2700.
• JPY initially strengthened but then faded most of its earlier gains with USD/JPY remaining at the 150.00 handle.

FIXED INCOME

• Treasuries saw mild bear-steepening in a choppy session despite a decent 7yr auction, as well as dips in consumer confidence and durable goods orders.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices gained amid reports that OPEC+ is to consider extending its output cuts into Q2 and potentially to year-end, whilst there were also doubts on a Gaza truce deal.
• US Private Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude +8.4mln (exp. +2.7mln), Cushing +1.8mln, Gasoline -3.3mln (exp. -1.5mln), Distillate -0.5mln (exp. -2.1mln)
• OPEC+ is to consider extending voluntary oil output cuts into Q2 and may extend them until year-end, according to Reuters sources. One of the OPEC sources said extending the output cuts into Q2 is 'likely', while two others said a longer extension until the end of the year was possible.
• Saudi Aramco said it added significant volumes to proven gas and condensate reserves at the Jafurah unconventional field where proven reserves increased by 15tln cubic feet of raw gas and 2bln stock tank bbls of condensate. It now estimates that Jafurah contains total resources of 229tln cubic feet of raw gas and 75bln stock tank bbls of condensate.
• Libya's NOC Chair said oil production is around 1.25mln BPD (1.212mln BPD on 12th February) and they are only using 25% of Libya-Italy gas pipeline capacity, while he said they used to produce 3.4mln BPD in the 70s and could return to that figure.
• Vitol CEO said the oil market is less fragile than it has been in recent years and oil demand will peak in the early 2030s, while he added that the crude market feels comfortable around USD 80/bbl.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Qatar's Foreign Minister said there is no breakthrough to announce on a Gaza ceasefire and no agreement between Israel and Hamas on any of the main issues linked to a ceasefire, although he remains upbeat and optimistic on mediation talks.
• Israeli political sources said they do not know what the basis of US President Biden's optimism is regarding an imminent ceasefire, according to AJA Breaking. It was separately reported that Israel’s spokesperson said they are determined to eliminate Hamas in Rafah.
• Lebanon's Hezbollah will cease fire if Hamas approves the Gaza truce, according to Reuters sources.
• US issued designations targeting an IRGC deputy and Houthi member, according to the Treasury.

OTHER

• Russia's Kremlin commented on French President Macron not ruling out sending European troops to Ukraine in which it stated that sending a NATO member contingent to Ukraine is a very important new element and if this happens, talks will have to shift to the inevitability of conflict with NATO.
• France’s Foreign Minister said Western troops could deploy to Ukraine without breaching any 'belligerence threshold', according to AFP.
• German Chancellor Scholz said there will be no NATO troops on Ukrainian territory, while Italian PM Meloni said support for Ukraine does not include sending European or NATO troops to fight there. It was also separately reported that the Pentagon said the US has no plans to send troops to fight in Ukraine.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said it is "necessary and urgent" for the coalition to unlock a value of USD 285mln in immobilised Russian assets to aid Ukraine and doing so would incentivise Moscow to negotiate a just peace with Ukraine, while the US continues to explore options for strengthening West Bank economy following Biden's executive order last month.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• PBoC held a working meeting on February 26th where it was stated that they are to use all monetary tools in full and use them well.
• China said it will prevent fluctuations in the housing market and localities should promote a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market. Furthermore, all cities should accurately study and judge housing demand and improve housing supply, as well as consider local economic and social development alongside population changes, according to CCTV.
• China granted approval for 111 domestic games during February, according to the National Press and Publication Administration.
• UK is said to be considering a probe of Chinese EV subsidies, according to Politico citing sources.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE's Ramsden supports the more balanced outlook on risks to inflation set out in the MPC’s latest forecasts and noted that services inflation and wage growth have fallen somewhat, but key indicators of inflation persistence remain elevated. Ramsden said he is looking for more evidence about how entrenched this persistence will be and therefore about how long the current level of Bank Rate will need to be maintained, while he added that services inflation is a key indicator and remains at levels well above what is consistent with 2% inflation target.
• UK Chancellor Hunt reportedly struggles to find ‘Budget goodies’ as he faces fiscal ‘headlock’, while deteriorating forecasts pose a challenge for Hunt as Tory MPs seek tax cuts to improve election prospects. Hunt is said to prioritise personal tax cuts on March 6th, but his allies noted room for manoeuvre is limited because of increasingly tight fiscal forecasts produced by the spending watchdog. Furthermore, Tory MPs still hope Hunt can spring a surprise by cutting national insurance rates by 2bp at a cost of about GBP 10bln although the Chancellor's aides have insisted this was 'impossible at the moment, let alone difficult', according to FT.
• Spain's government announced it is to set up a EUR 40bln fund to grant soft loans to companies.