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US stocks ultimately finished the Monday session mixed. Growth fears initially weighed on sentiment after the US Manufacturing ISM headline fell by more than expected - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Monday, Jun 03, 2024 - 08:54 PM
  • US stocks ultimately finished the Monday session mixed. Growth fears initially weighed on sentiment after the US Manufacturing ISM headline fell by more than expected. 
  • The Dollar traded flat early in the session before it was hit after the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI which showcased two consecutive months of contraction and was weaker than analysts' forecasts.
  • Treasuries bull flatten after ISM Manufacturing PMI misses while prices paid also ease dip beneath all analyst forecasts.
  • Crude futures slid lower on Monday as traders digested the weekend's OPEC+ policy decision.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean CPI, UK BRC Retail Sales, Australian Current Account, 10yr JGB Auction, BoJ's Himino

 

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4th June 2024

SNAPSHOT

  • Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

  • US stocks ultimately finished the Monday session mixed. Growth fears initially weighed on sentiment after the US Manufacturing ISM headline fell by more than expected. Within the data the Prices Paid component slipped beneath all analyst expectations.
  • SPX +0.11% at 5,283, NDX +0.35% at 18,600, DJIA -0.3% at 38,571, RUT -0.5% at 2,060
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

DATA RECAP

  • Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI SA (May) 49.3 (Prev. 49.4)
  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May) 51.3 (Prev. 50.9); “Cost pressures continued to build, however, with inflation on that front the strongest in just over a year. Although output prices rose at a slower pace in May, this is unlikely to be sustainable should cost burdens ramp up further in the months ahead.”
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) 48.7 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.2); matches the low-end of the 48.7-50.5 forecast range; Prices Paid (May) 57.0 vs. Exp. 58.5 (Prev. 60.9)
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2 24): 1.8% (prev. 2.7%)

FX

  • The Dollar traded flat early in the session before it was hit after the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI which showcased two consecutive months of contraction and was weaker than analysts forecasts.
  • The Euro was stronger on Monday. Initially trading sideways after the release of mixed final revised European PMI’s (Italian, French, German, EU), but the soft US ISM data and aforementioned Dollar weakness gave the Euro a helping hand to see EUR/USD peak at 1.0891, with technicians eyeing 1.0900 as next level of resistance.
  • Cyclical currencies were somewhat mixed, with GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD initially seeing gains on the aforementioned ISM data given the Dollar weakness. In the UK, ahead of elections the Reform Party announced that Nigel Farage will lead the party, although this had limited impact on the Pound.
  • The Yen and Franc both outperformed among their G10 FX peers as US yields were lower across the curve (10yr yield fell from 4.6 to 4.4%) driven largely by the weaker ISM data.
  • The Yuan initially appreciated in response to the revision higher in the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI overnight, but gains were shortlived and the Yuan was only marginally firmer vs the softer Dollar by the end of the US session.

FIXED INCOME

  • Treasuries bull flatten after ISM Manufacturing PMI misses while prices paid also ease dip beneath all analyst forecasts.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures slid lower on Monday as traders digested the weekend's OPEC+ policy decision. While the group extended its supply cuts through the end of 2025, it outlined its intentions to ease the level of cuts from Q4 and through the end of next year.

GEOPOLITICAL

  • Hamas is slated to send a delegation to Cairo tomorrow to discuss the latest Israeli hostage deal proposal, according to Times of Israel sources.
  • Israel PM Netanyahu's office reportedly conveyed to Ben Gvir a message that contrary to President Biden's words, there is no clause in the draft agreement that includes stopping the war, and that the other clauses will not constitute a "surrender deal.
  • Israeli's Netanyahu says Israel can undertake phase 1 of Gaza plan and then put forward terms for phase 2.
  • Israel's Ben-Gvir says "Netanyahu invited me to see draft of Gaza plan, but his office twice failed to provide it"; he suspects an attempt to "whitewash" a "foolhardy" Gaza proposal.
  • Iran military adviser killed in Syria in an Israeli attack on Sunday, according to Iranian media reports.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • BoJ Quarterly Bond Markey Survey: index gauging bond market function at -24 (prev. -29), fifth consecutive quarter of improvement.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) raises 2024 guidance; FY underlying EBITDA seen at USD 7-9bln, and EBIT of USD 1-3bln; FY FCF of at least USD 1bln.
  • UK's Reform announces Nigel Farage has accepted to lead the Reform party.

DATA RECAP

  • EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (May) 47.3 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 47.4)
  • German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May) 45.4 vs. Exp. 45.4 (Prev. 45.4)
  • French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May) 46.4 vs. Exp. 46.7 (Prev. 46.7)
  • Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May) 45.6 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 47.3)
  • UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) 51.2 (Prev. 51.3)
  • Turkish CPI MM (May) 3.37% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.18%); Turkish CPI YY (May) 75.45% vs. Exp. 74.8% (Prev. 69.8%)
  • Deutsche Bank lifts its Euro-area 2024 GDP growth view to 0.9% (prev. 0.4%)
  • German Engineering Orders +10% Y/Y in April (Domestic +3%; Foreign Orders +13%)
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