Unknown Traders Put On Huge Bet Jobs Report Will Be So Hot, It Sends 10Y Yield Above 4.00%

While today's JOLTS print was indeed horrendous, the market made the predictable mistake of equating a stale labor report (JOLTS always lags the NFP print by a month) with what the BLS has in store for this latest month. And, as we observed last week, following the recent near record downward revision, the Department of Labor's data fabrication engines has been rebooted (all those fake jobs gains were literally swept under the calendar rug and nobody cares any more that month after month was artificially inflated), which means that the BLS can go back to square one in fabricating labor market data, something it can and will do now that the Fed will cut 25bps no matter what, and the Kamala regime needs a "strong" labor market as a fallback ahead of the coming elections.

Anyone expecting a weak jobs report next week will be extremely disappointed: that's what the downward revision was for.

Now, BLS resumes its manipulation/goalseeking to make the economy seem "as strong as possible" the 2 months into elections

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 28, 2024

Of course, once Friday's payrolls comes in hot (think 200K or higher for August, vs expectations of a 165K print and up from 114K in July), the market will immediately reverse the hard-landing expectations it promptly adopted in the past few days, pushing odds of a 50bps rate cut in September as high as 50% earlier today and sending the 2Y yield tumbling to the widest it has been vs the fed funds rate since 2008...