Trump Or Not, Dollar Devaluation Is Imminent

Authored by Simon Black, Bloomberg macro strategist,

With the odds rising of Trump presidency, markets are applying more scrutiny to his policies. One of the most potentially consequential is a devaluation of the dollar to boost exports. But it is already set to weaken in the coming months and years.

Structural overvaluation and several years of loose fiscal and insufficiently tight monetary policy ensure that the path of least resistance for the US currency is lower.