Tesla's Q4: Analysts Expect Record Deliveries, But Miss On 2 Million Vehicle Delivery Target

Tesla deliveries are expected to hit another record for the fourth quarter, but will fall short of the company's oft-touted 2 million target for the year, a new report from Reuters said this week. 

Analysts believe that the company delivered 1.82 million vehicles in 2023, which is up 37% from the year prior. Estimates are calling for about 473,000 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter. Tesla will release the numbers as early as next Tuesday.

Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research, told Reuters: "The fourth quarter is typically the strongest of the year in terms of deliveries for Tesla, we're expecting that to be the case again this year." 

The company is grappling with a decline in sales and has been using aggressive price cuts to move metal worldwide throughout the course of the year. This strategy was particularly emphasized in China, where Tesla has seen a reduction in its market share, challenged by domestic competitors such as BYD.

We have written extensively about how China's EV market is becoming saturated and increasingly competitive. 

Tesla, intensifying its year-end sales with increased discounts, aims for a 50% average annual growth over several years. However, in 2024, the EV leader faces challenges such as the loss of federal tax credits in the U.S. and Germany's cessation of its EV subsidy program.

Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jairam Nathan revised Tesla's 2024 delivery forecast down to 2.04 million from 2.14 million, anticipating a 4% drop in average revenue per vehicle compared to 2023.

Analysts at Visible Alpha predict 2.2 million Tesla deliveries next year but remain skeptical that new releases like the Cybertruck and an updated Model 3 will significantly stimulate demand.

Analysts are expecting the company's slower growth to continue into the new year. Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a recent note: "Tesla candidly admitted the company is now in an intermediate low-growth period."

As we have noted in past articles, Tesla faces increased regulatory attention in the U.S. and Europe regarding its self-driving systems, leading to a recent recall of almost 2 million U.S. vehicles for new safety measures. Elon Musk views full self-driving technology as a key future value driver for Tesla.