On 'Tariff Tantrums' & An 'Engineered Recession' - Nomura Warns That "'Trump Put' Is Meaningfully Lower"

The "Growth Scare >> Growth Shock" narrative just keeps picking-up Delta, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott points out that SOFR Dec 2025 Options are again pulling-forward the Fed cutting path with the probability distribution “firmly” at 3 Cuts by YE (with lumpy pricing for even more cutting than 4 cuts by YE),,,

...as the “Low Strike Receiver” Tail-hedging crowd he's been talking about for the past month had it right on the money--as now, said various Upside structures / Calls and Receivers in SOFR to UST Options are contributing to a further rally velocity, as the magnitude of the Spot rally sees us pushing into Dealer / MM “Short Strikes” in Fixed-Income Options.