'SuperCore' Inflation Rises For 49th Straight Month As Spending Disappoints
The last month has seen US Macro data collapsing at its fastest rate in years...
Source: Bloomberg
...which, many believe, will also drag down inflation (and it has been)...
Source: Bloomberg
Today, we get to see The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - which rose 0.1% MoM in May (after a revised +0.3% MoM for April) and in line with expectations. The headline PCE Price Index was unchanged MoM as expected as Durable Goods deflation trumped surging Services costs...
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, both headline and core PCE declined...
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, Durable Goods deflation is at its strongest in at least a decade...
Source: Bloomberg
More notably, the so-called SuperCore PCE rose 0.1% MoM, which saw YoY slow to 3.39%... which is awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels...
Source: Bloomberg
That is the 49th straight monthly rise in SuperCore prices with Healthcare costs soaring...
Source: Bloomberg
On a MoM basis, Income grew more than expected (+0.5% vs +0.2% exp) while spending rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% exp)
Source: Bloomberg
Which accelerated both income and spending on a YoY basis (with the latter outpacing the former, of course)...
Source: Bloomberg
With wage pressures rising once again...
Government 8.5%, up from 8.4% but below the record high of 8.9%
Private 4.5% up from 4.2%
Source: Bloomberg
And after a series of revisions, the savings rate ticked up to 3.9% of DPI (from 3.7%) - the highest since January...
Source: Bloomberg
All of which takes place against a background of the sixth straight month of rising government handouts (well it is an election year after all)...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while acyclical inflationary pressures continue to drift lower, cyclical inflationary pressures remain extremely elevated...
Source: Bloomberg
A very mixed bag but nothing screams 'automatic' rate-cuts... and SuperCore refuses to budge.
