"Stubbornly Subdued" - UMich Sentiment Slumps As Home-Buying Conditions Hit Record-Low

UMich consumer sentiment slumped in preliminary July data with Current Conditions at their lowest since Dec 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

UMich Director Joanne Hsu warned: "Although sentiment is more than 30% above the trough from June 2022, it remains stubbornly subdued."

"Nearly half of consumers still object to the impact of high prices, even as they expect inflation to continue moderating in the years ahead.

With the upcoming election, consumers perceived substantial uncertainty in the trajectory of the economy, though there is little evidence that the first presidential debate altered their economic views."

On the positive side, year-ahead inflation expectations fell for the second consecutive month, reaching 2.9%. In comparison, these expectations ranged between 2.3 to 3.0% in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 2.9%, down from 3.0% last month and remaining remarkably stable over the last three years.

Source: Bloomberg

However, these expectations remain somewhat elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Buying Conditions plunged across the board with home-buying attitudes crashing to record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats saw the biggest drop in sentiment...

Source: Bloomberg

...but, but , but Bidenomics?