Stocks were choppy and finished mostly lower after a jump in JOLTS on the eve of the FOMC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were choppy and the SPX finished little changed on the eve of the FOMC although there were losses in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, while US data was on the firmer side with a surprise rise in JOLTS job openings and an increase in Consumer Confidence but was not as strong as expected.
• USD was flat in which the DXY traded on both sides of 103.50 with all eyes turning to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday ahead of NFP on Friday, while the data saw a hot JOLTS print but the quits rate was unchanged and consumer confidence rose but not as much as forecast.
• Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, New Zealand Business Confidence, Australian CPI & Private Sector Credit, Chinese Official PMIs, BoJ Summary of Opinions from the January Meeting.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include South Korean Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, New Zealand Business Confidence, Australian CPI & Private Sector Credit, Chinese Official PMIs, BoJ Summary of Opinions from the January Meeting.
• Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were choppy and the SPX finished little changed on the eve of the FOMC although there were losses in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, while US data was on the firmer side with a surprise rise in JOLTS job openings and an increase in Consumer Confidence but was not as strong as expected.
• SPX -0.06% at 4,925, NDX -0.68% at 17,477, DJIA +0.35% at 38,467, RUT -0.76% at 1,996.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• House Republicans reportedly want to put a bipartisan tax cut bill on the floor tomorrow, according to Fox News' Pergram.

AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS

• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.59), Revenue 86.31bln (exp. 85.33bln), Google advertising revenue USD 65.52bln (exp. 65.8bln).
• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 2.93 (exp. 2.78), Revenue 62.02bln (exp. 61.1bln). Cloud revenue 33.7bln (exp. 32.31bln)
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.77 (exp. 0.77), Revenue 6.17bln (exp. 6.12bln)
• Starbucks Corp (SBUX) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.90 (exp. 0.93), Revenue 9.40bln (exp. 9.58bln)

DATA RECAP

• US Consumer Confidence (Jan) 114.8 vs. Exp. 115.0 (Prev. 110.7, Rev. 108.0)
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) 9.03M vs. Exp. 8.75M (Prev. 8.79M, Rev. 8.923M)
• US CaseShiller 20 MM SA (Nov) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%)
• US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (Nov) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 4.9%)
• US Monthly Home Price MM (Nov) 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
• US Monthly Home Price YY (Nov) 6.6% (Prev. 6.3%)

FX

• USD was flat in which the DXY traded on both sides of 103.50 with all eyes turning to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday ahead of NFP on Friday, while the data saw a hot JOLTS print but the quits rate was unchanged and consumer confidence rose but not as much as forecast.
• EUR rebounded from early lows after the morning data including firmer-than-expected Spanish CPI, while the German GDP metrics saw Germany narrowly avoid a technical recession.
• GBP was choppy and dipped beneath 1.2700 before paring the majority of its losses.
• JPY traded indecisively with USD/JPY stalling after approaching just shy of the 148.00 level.
• Hungary Central Bank cut the Base Rate by 75bps to 10.00% vs. Exp. 9.75% (Prev. 10.75%). Hungary Central Bank said they are constantly assessing incoming macroeconomic data, as well as the outlook for inflation and developments in the risk environment. It also noted that in the coming months, decisions on any further reductions in the base rate and their optimal pace will be made on the basis of this information in a data-driven manner.

FIXED INCOME

• Treasuries saw large flattening after the rise in JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence ahead of the quarterly refunding announcement and the FOMC.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices were ultimately firmer in choppy trade amid ongoing Middle East tensions, Saudi production capacity caps and IMF growth upgrades.
• US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. +1.5mln), Distillate -2.1mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -2.0mln.
• US State Department confirmed oil sanctions against Venezuela, according to AFP.
• US seeks to buy about 3mln bbls of US-produced sour crude for the SPR for a June delivery.
• White House Energy Advisor Hochstein said oil demand and supply are well balanced. Hochstein added there are huge increases in oil supply from the US, Brazil and Guyana, while he sees price reflection in oil markets as accurate.

GEOPOLITICAL

• US President Biden said he decided how he will respond to the attacks on US troops within Jordan but added that they do not need a wider war in the Middle East, while he said Iran was responsible for supplying the weapons in the recent attack.
• Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah suspended military and security operations against US forces and said it took the decision to prevent any embarrassment to the Iraqi government. It was earlier reported that an Iran-proxy group fired a drone at a base in Iraq although no injuries were reported.
• Pentagon declined to comment on Kataib Hezbollah's declaration that it is suspending operations against US forces and said actions speak louder than words.
• Senior Hamas leaders said the Paris ceasefire proposal includes three stages which are the release of civilians, the release of all recruits and the release of bodies, while operations would stop during the three stages.
• White House's Kirby said they see potential for an extended pause in Gaza that would let hostages out.
• Iraq and Jordanian foreign ministers stressed the need to distance the two countries and the region from military threats by any side, according to state media.
• Yemen's Houthi forces commander said the group is ready for a long-term confrontation with the US and UK.

GLOBAL

• IMF World Economic Outlook raised the 2024 global economic growth forecast to 3.1% (prev. 2.9% in October) and kept the 2025 outlook unchanged at 3.2%. China’s 2024 GDP growth forecast was lifted to 4.6% from 4.2% but the 2025 forecast was unchanged at 4.1%, while US 2024 GDP growth forecast growth forecast was lifted to 2.1% from 1.5% but the 2025 forecast was cut to 1.7% from 1.8%.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• China's financial regulator said it will step up the disposal of non-performing assets, steadily resolve risks in key areas and strengthen credit risk management. The regulator also said it will speed up the implementation of coordinating the mechanism for urban real estate financing, guard against and resolve local debt risks, as well as strive to expand effective demand.
• Chinese President Xi promised US President Biden that China wouldn’t interfere in the election, according to CNN.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB's Makhlouf said the ECB should remain open-minded about the rate path which is the essence of data dependence and with disinflation well underway, the ECB is confident of sustainably reaching its 2% inflation target.
• ECB's Nagel said Germany's economic outlook is not great, while he added that inflation is absolutely moving in the right direction and the ECB will decide meeting by meeting. Nagel also said he is now convinced that the ECB has tamed the "greedy beast" of inflation.
• ECB's Vujcic said April or June for a rate cut is not a big difference and that 25bps increments are preferable, while he added it is not a given that cuts will occur at every meeting and pauses are possible. Furthermore, he said the data supports a soft-landing scenario.
• German government advisers said the German debt brake is too rigid and restricts the fiscal space for future-oriented expenditure, according to the FT.
• Berlin Airport said there will be no departures for passengers on Thursday due to a strike.

DATA RECAP

• Spanish HICP Flash YY (Jan) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.3%)
• German GDP Flash QQ SA (Q4) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%, Rev. 0.0%)
• German GDP Flash YY SA (Q4) -0.2% vs Exp. -0.2% (prev. -0.4%)
• EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q4) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
• EU GDP Flash Prelim YY (Q4) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
• EU Economic Sentiment (Jan) 96.2 vs. Exp. 96.2 (Prev. 96.4)
• EU Industrial Sentiment (Jan) -9.4 vs. Exp. -9.0 (Prev. -9.2)
• EU Services Sentiment (Jan) 8.8 vs. Exp. 8.0 (Prev. 8.4)
• EU Business Climate (Jan) -0.4 vs. Exp. -0.27 (Prev. -0.45, Rev. -0.50)
• EU Consumer Confidence Final (Jan) -16.1 vs. Exp. -16.1 (Prev. -16.1)