Stocks Can't Catch A Break As QT Is Finally About To Bite

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Reserves are about to drop below the level they were at when the Federal Reserve initiated its balance-sheet reduction policy in June 2022 just as government shutdown fears resurface, adding to the litany of risks facing the stock market.

Like the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland, the Fed has managed two seemingly impossible things in this cycle: shrinking its balance sheet while keeping reserves – foundational to market liquidity – overall steady.