Stagflation Signal Stalls Stocks; Sparks Gold Gains
Hotter than expected CPI (as food costs reignite) and ugly jobless claims data (somewhat affected by Hurricane Helene) signal stagflationary pressures may be returning...
Source: Bloomberg
...sparked some initial chaos across asset classes, pushing rate-cut expectations lower (hawkish) for 2024 but higher (dovish) for 2025...
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks ended lower (with Small Caps the biggest loser) despite a late-day panic-bid into the close...
NVDA is holding it all together...
As VIX increased (now dramatically decoupled from stocks) ahead of tonight's TSLA robotaxi event, and tomorrow's PPI and the beginning of earnings season...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were very mixed today with the short-end outperforming (2Y -3.5bps, 30Y +4bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
...which steepened the yield curve significantly, erasing all the post-payrolls flattening...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the 8th day in a row - the last time this happened, The Fed had just started hiking rates in April 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the dollar's gains, gold also rallied today...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin barfed late on today, back below the $60,000 Maginot Line once again (after an SEC lawsuit against digital asset market maker Cumberland DRW sparked more regulatory FUD)...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices also managed solid gains today after two ugly days with WTI back above $76...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the fundamental contradiction at the heart of today’s price moves is most easily seen in market measures of longer inflation expectations, which are rising even as two-year yields plumb session lows.
Source: Bloomberg
As Bloomberg's Sebastian Boyd noted, the mixed nature of today’s data means that traders are trying to express the view that inflation is still a problem, but that the labor market is maybe weakening too, which will mean The Fed goes ahead with rate cuts anyway.
