S&P Set For 29th Record High Of 2024 As Futures Continue Relentless Grind Higher

Futures are higher, again, with Tech leading, again, and small-caps lagging, the same trend that we saw after the Powell press conference despite small-caps leading the way most of the session. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were up 0.1% and set for the 29th all time high print this year, while Nasdaq futures outperform, rising 0.6% and set to gain for a fourth straight session after another record close on Wednesday as Mag7 and Semi stocks push higher, with AVGO +13.6%, TSLA +6.3%, and NVDA +2.4% all notably higher. Many of the other Mag7 names are lower pre-mkt, but elements of the AI ecosystem are up pre-mkt, e.g., VRT +1.9%. Bond yields are ranging from -1bps to +1bps, the 10Y TSY yield last trading around 4.31%, while the dollar rebounded from the post-CPI drop to rise ahead of US data on producer prices, supported by the view that the Fed may deliver just one interest rate cut this year. Commodities are mostly higher despite crude and precious metals lower. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI, Jobless Claims; investors will also look to an event featuring New York Fed President John Williams and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen later in the day.

In premarket trading, Tesla surged after Elon Musk said shareholder resolutions to re-ratify his pay package and moving the company’ s legal home to Texas were passing by “wide margins.”

Both Tesla shareholder resolutions are currently passing by wide margins!

♥️♥️ Thanks for your support!! ♥️♥️ pic.twitter.com/udf56VGQdo
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 13, 2024

Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Broadcom (AVGO) gains 14% after the chip supplier reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive forecast.
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) slides 10% after the restaurant chain reported first-quarter revenue and earnings per share that missed consensus estimates.
Stellantis (STLA) falls 2.2% ahead of its investor day on Thursday that Stifel analysts previously said would carry a lot of weight in rebuilding trust with the market.
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) drops 9% after the space tourism firm’s board approved a 1-for-20 reverse split of the company’s common stock.

Risk assets rallied on Wednesday after the latest US inflation report showed core CPI fell to the lowest in more than three years, spurring bets on faster policy easing. However, just a few hours later, the Fed penciled in just one quarter point interest-rate cut this year, down from three seen in March. That, however, did not dent bullish sentiment and one day later, swap traders are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by November, with a 75% likelihood of a similar reduction by year-end. That compares with a 50% chance of a second cut two days ago. US producer prices may offer more signals later on Thursday.

“The Fed dot plot was marginally on the hawkish side, causing some pullback in the markets,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist for Europe at Jefferies International. Any selloff in stocks would be a buying opportunity, he said.

European stocks erased an earlier gain, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 0.9% after advancing the most in a month following the softer US inflation print. Adding to the caution, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that consumer price growth in the euro zone is proving stubborn. “We are on a bumpy road, but we all know that the last mile is the most complicated one,” the Bundesbank president said. Here are the most notable European movers:

Halma shares gain as much as 5.2%, hitting the highest in a year, after the health and safety sensor technology group releases its full-year results.
Valmet shares advance as much as 3.9%, the most in three weeks, after Carnegie upgraded its view on the Finnish energy and paper industry equipment manufacturer to buy from hold.
Lotus Bakeries shares rise as much as 4.8% after Mondelēz agreed to make and sell the Belgian company’s Biscoff cookies in India.
Wise shares fall as much as 23%, the most ever, after the money transfer firm’s revenue growth forecasts missed expectations on the back of price reductions implemented at start of FY2025.
Volvo Car shares drop 5.2%, bringing their two-day decline to more than 10% since the EU announced Wednesday that it will impose tariffs of as much as 48% on EV imports from China.
Stellantis shares fall as much as 1.6% ahead of its investor day on Thursday that Stifel analysts previously said would carry a lot of weight in rebuilding trust with the market.
Ericsson shares drop as much as 2.8% after Nordea downgrades the Swedish 5G gear maker to hold from buy following strong share-price performance since the company’s first-quarter results in April.
Lufthansa shares slide as much as 7.1%, to the lowest price since October 2022, as JPMorgan analysts open a negative catalyst watch, seeing potential for further downward revisions to guidance.
Telefonica shares slip as much as 1.9% after a downgrade to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank. The broker notes that the firm’s stock is now one of the most expensive in its sector.
LPP shares drop as much as 3.7% even as the Polish fashion retailer reported an improved first-quarter gross margin and guided for a “significantly higher” margin in the current period.
Synsam shares decline as much as 11%, the most since March, in reaction to a column published by Swedish business daily Dagens Industri.
Crest Nicholson shares slide as much as 12.7% to hit a one-month low after the housebuilder’s first-half profit fell short of expectations and full-year guidance was cut.

Asian stocks fluctuated, with weakness in Japan countering advances in technology shares triggered by lowered concerns on Federal Reserve policy. The MSCI Asia Index swung between a loss of as much as 0.2% and gain of 0.4%. Tencent and TSMC were among the biggest boosts while Toyota fell. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi gained 1% and Taiwan’s main index rose more than 1.2% as tech stocks followed US peers higher. Key gauges also climbed in Hong Kong and Australia. Cooler-than-expected consumer price data reduced concerns on US interest rates, even after the Fed dialed back expectations for cuts this year to just one.

In FX, theBloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.1%, recovering after the previous day’s fall, when a weak US CPI reading had triggered selling in the currency before the Fed announcement “The market got it wrong last night and reacted more strongly to the data print than to the Fed update, and I think over the long term it should be the other way around,” said Nick Twidale, chief analyst at ATFX Global Markets

In rates, Treasuries are steady as investors continue to dissect the latest messaging from the Federal Reserve. US 10-year yields are little changed at 4.30%. In a separate development, the European Union’s bonds fell after MSCI Inc. said it won’t add the bloc’s debt to its range of government bond indexes. Bunds and gilts also fell. The week's Treasury coupon auction cycle concludes with $22b 30-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time, following strong demand for Tuesday’s 10-year sale. WI 30-year yield at ~4.468% is roughly 17bp richer than May’s, which stopped 0.7bp through.

In commodities, crude traded near session lows, continuing the pressure sparked by the prior day's bearish inventory data. Geopol updates out of the Middle East have been thin today, though elsewhere Reuters reports that unidentified assailants attacked soldiers guarding the Niger-Benin gas pipeline. Brent trades around $82/bbl, the lower end of a narrow overnight range. Softer trade across precious metals with deeper losses seen in spot silver and palladium vs gold, with the complex pressured by the attempted recovery in the Dollar post-FOMC with gold looking ahead to this afternoon's US PPI and IJCs. Base metals are lower across the board, again as a function of the attempted Dollar recovery and following the cautious mood in APAC and early European markets.

Bitcoin is slightly softer and holds just below $67.5k, whilst Ethereum dips below $3.5k.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for May and the weekly initial jobless claims, along with Euro Area industrial production for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller and the Fed’s Williams. In the political sphere, the G7 leaders summit will get underway in Italy.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,436.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 519.90
MXAP little changed at 179.66
MXAPJ up 0.7% to 564.28
Nikkei down 0.4% to 38,720.47
Topix down 0.9% to 2,731.78
Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 18,112.63
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,028.92
Sensex up 0.3% to 76,830.04
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,749.70
Kospi up 1.0% to 2,754.89
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.56%
Euro little changed at $1.0808
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $82.45/bbl
Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,316.02
US Dollar Index up 0.12% to 104.78

Top Overnight News

Tesla shares jumped premarket after Elon Musk said preliminary results for proposals to re-ratify his $56 billion package and move Tesla’s legal home to Texas were passing by “wide margins” late yesterday. BBG
Across China, 16 or more cities have allowed companies to test driverless vehicles on public roads, and at least 19 Chinese automakers and their suppliers are competing to establish global leadership in the field. No other country is moving as aggressively. The government is providing the companies significant help. In addition to cities designating on-road testing areas for robot taxis, censors are limiting online discussion of safety incidents and crashes to restrain public fears about the nascent technology. NYT
BOJ could dial back its QE intensity at tonight’s meeting, taking the monthly pace from JPY6T to JPY5T. Nikkei
Mexico’s peso gained after the country paid off a dollar bond due next year in a bid to calm a market selloff. It also said it’ll refinance local debt due in 2025. Banxico said it’s ready to intervene in the peso if volatility becomes “extreme.” BBG
Washington set to sign a 10-year security agreement w/Ukraine that will commit the US to supplying Kyiv with weapons and other military assistance (although future American presidents will have the ability to withdraw from the pact). WaPo
Blackstone and Ares-backed private credit funds have found a cheap place to raise money: the IG corporate bond market. They’re among funds that have raised over $13.4 billion in the US market so far this year — nearly double the $8 billion raised over the entirety of 2023. BBG
OpenAI is building an international team of lobbyists as it seeks to influence politicians and regulators who are increasing their scrutiny over powerful artificial intelligence. The San Francisco-based start-up told the Financial Times it has expanded the number of staff on its global affairs team from three at the start of 2023 to 35. The company aims to build that up to 50 by the end of 2024. FT
U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak said on Wednesday it expects ridership to top pre-COVID 2019 levels this year for the first time and reach a record high even though it has less capacity. Ridership was 20% higher in the first seven months of Amtrak's budget year that began Oct. 1, and ticket revenue was up 10% versus the same period in 2023. RTRS
Apple isn’t paying OpenAI to use its chatbot as it believes promoting ChatGPT’s brand and tech is just as valuable, people familiar said. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were somewhat mixed following the key developments stateside where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended to fresh record levels after softer-than-expected CPI data, although participants also digested the latest FOMC meeting and hawkish dot plots which suggested just one rate cut this year vs. prev. view of three cuts. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in tech amid a softer yield environment and with stronger-than-expected jobs data. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain early gains and dipped back below the 39,000 level as the BoJ kick-started its two-day policy meeting, while Nikkei reported the BoJ will consider gradually reducing its JGB holdings at this meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. diverged in rangebound trade with the mood in Hong Kong positive as several automakers weathered the EU announcement of tariffs on Chinese EVs and HKMA maintained its base rate at 5.75% in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland was lacklustre despite the PBoC's latest efforts to support the property industry.

Top Asian News

Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintained its base rate at 5.75%, in lockstep with the Fed.
China hopes the EU will make some serious reconsideration on tariffs for China EVs and stop going further in the wrong direction, according to state media.
BoJ will reportedly consider gradually reducing its Japanese government bond holdings at this week's two-day policy meeting, according to Nikkei.
South Korea's government and ruling party are to increase fines and punishment for illegal short-selling, while the stock short-selling ban will be extended until March, according to Yonhap.
Japanese Banking Association Chairman says under rising interest rates, banks' business models are moving towards prioritising deposits.
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) FY (HKD) Op profit 12.16bln (exp. 8.58bln), +28.9% Y/Y, Revenue 108.71bln (exp. 108.45bln), +14.8% Y/Y

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.6%) began the session on a modestly softer footing, and continued to trundle lower as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with a slight defensive tilt. Autos is towards the bottom of the pile, continuing the losses seen this week. Chemical names, Covestro (-2.6%) and BASF (-1.5%) are also under pressure, after wholesale chemical products fell 13.9% Y/Y vs -0.9% in April. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.7%, RTY -0.4%) are mixed, with the NQ the clear outperformer, propped up by several pre-market movers within the index. Firstly, Tesla (+6.2%) gains on reports that shareholders have voted in favour of Musk’s USD 56bln pay package. Elsewhere, Broadcom (+14.8%) surges post-earnings, and Nvidia (+2.2%) continues to march forward.

Top European News

UK opposition Labour Party leader Starmer said they are not looking at bringing in wealth taxes.
Sky News/YouGov poll found that 64% of respondents thought Labour Party leader Starmer did better in the Sky News Leaders TV interviews, while 36% thought UK PM Sunak did better.
ECB's Vasle says there is a risk that the disinflation process could slow. Will be data dependent. Wage momentum is still relatively strong. More 2024 cuts probable, if the baseline holds.
ECB's Muller says ECB has not yet achieved inflation target; possible that inflation could temporarily rise again; services inflation still relatively high; wage growth still strong

USD is attempting to recoup more of the slump seen after US CPI yesterday, which took the index to a low of 104.25 with hawkish FOMC dot plots and Fed Chair Powell's cautious tone also helping. The DXY has been trading within a busy 104.67-85 range throughout the London session, awaiting impetus from PPI & IJC.
EUR straddled 1.0800 throughout APAC hours before finding some support at the level. The Single-currency was little changed to the cooler German Wholesale data, with price action tentative thus far.
GBP is flat with Cable attempting a test of 1.2800 but failed, with the pair within a 1.2774-99. UK-specific newsflow light today, as focus remains on the UK election and awaiting the Labour manifesto.
JPY stands as the current G10 laggard, albeit marginally, as US yields came off best levels post-FOMC. Markets will await the BoJ policy announcement due on Friday, but for now, sits in a 156.57-157.30 range.
Antipodeans are modestly softer amid the cautious mood in Europe whilst better-than-expected Australian jobs data only provided a brief tailwind for AUD/USD.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1122 vs exp. 7.2384 (prev. 7.1133).

Fixed Income

USTs are slightly softer as desks digest the FOMC and as market pricing pivots away from September and towards November for the first cut. Currently trading lower by a handful of ticks ahead of PPI, which will help to form the consensus for PCE.
Bunds are on the backfoot as participants continue to pare the post-CPI rally with the bearish action driven by Wednesday's FOMC. A handful of ECB speakers today have had little impact on price action, whilst a further cooling in German wholesale price index spurred a brief bid in Bunds to a 131.11 peak.
Gilts gapped lower by just a handful of ticks to 97.97 which marks the current session high. Currently trading well within the prior day's 96.84-98.23 range, awaiting the Labour manifesto and US PPI.
Italy sells EUR 9bln vs exp. EUR 7.5-9bln 3.45% 2027, 3.45% 2031, 4.15% 2039, 3.85% 2049 BTP:

Commodities

Crude is subdued and towards session lows, continuing the pressure sparked by the prior day's bearish inventory data. Geopol updates out of the Middle East have been thin today, though elsewhere Reuters reports that unidentified assailants attacked soldiers guarding the Niger-Benin gas pipeline. Brent Aug towards the lower end of an 82.07-55/bbl parameter.
Softer trade across precious metals with deeper losses seen in spot silver and palladium vs gold, with the complex pressured by the attempted recovery in the Dollar post-FOMC with gold looking ahead to this afternoon's US PPI and IJCs.
Base metals are lower across the board, again as a function of the attempted Dollar recovery and following the cautious mood in APAC and early European markets.
Chevron Australia has started repair works on the Wheatstone platform - expected to be completed in the coming weeks; LNG and domestic gas production to resume following safe completion of repairs.
Unidentified assailants attack soldiers guarding Niger-Benin gas pipeline, via Reuters citing sources; pipeline not damaged. In reference to the 110k BPD pipeline which concluded construction works in March/April 2024.

Geopolitics: Middle East

Hamas's request in advance for a guarantee of a permanent ceasefire complicates Gaza truce negotiations and the main sticking point in the hostage negotiation is the demand for an explicit pledge by Israel to end the war, according to The Times of Israel. it was also reported that Hamas hardened some of its positions on the truce proposal and demanded the inclusion of China, Russia and Turkey as guarantors of the agreement, according to the Israel Broadcasting Corporation.
Hamas statement said it showed positivity in all stages of negotiations to stop the aggression, while it urged the US administration to direct its pressure on Israel which it said wants to pursue the Gaza war.
Lebanese army chief is visiting Washington this week to discuss the situation at the border, according to Al-Monitor.
US military said its forces successfully destroyed three anti-ship cruise missile launchers in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen and one uncrewed aerial system launched from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen. However, it stated that one Iranian-backed Houthi unmanned surface vessel struck M/V Tutor which is a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned and operated vessel in the Red Sea, while the impact caused severe flooding and damage to the engine room.
Iran is responding to last week's IAEA resolution against it by expanding uranium-enrichment capacity at two underground sites although the escalations are not as large as many feared, according to diplomats cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Other

Russian nuclear-powered submarine and other naval vessels arrived in Cuba for a five-day visit to the communist island in a show of force amid spiralling US-Russian tensions, according to AFP News Agency.

US Event Calendar

08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 229,000
- June Continuing Claims, est. 1.8m, prior 1.79m
08:30: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
- May PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.2%
- May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
- May PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%
12:00: Fed’s Williams Interviews Treasury Sec. Yellen

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have continued to reach new heights over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.85%) at another record after the US CPI report and the Fed’s latest decision. The CPI release was the main catalyst for that, as it featured the slowest month of core inflation since August 2021, and led investors to dial up the chance that the Fed would still cut rates twice this year. Later on, the Fed was then a bit more hawkish than expected, and only pencilled in one rate cut over the rest of the year. But that only unwound a part amount of the rally, with investors much more focused on the positive inflation news, with the hope that further prints like that one will open the door to faster cuts.

When it came to that US CPI release, it was one of the best prints in a long time from the Fed’s point of view. Specifically, the monthly core CPI was at just +0.16% in May, which is the slowest core inflation since August 2021, and it was also clearly beneath the +0.3% print expected by the consensus. In turn, that took the year-on-year core CPI print to +3.4% (vs. +3.5% expected), which is the lowest since April 2021. That softness was evident among headline inflation too, which was running at a monthly pace of just +0.01% in May, and the slowest since July 2022. Clearly the Fed will want to see a run of more favourable prints like this one, but there was little doubt that this was a very good number. Indeed, looking at the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean (which excludes the biggest outliers in either direction), it was the slowest monthly print since January 2021 at +0.13%. So it was clear this was a broad-based move lower for inflation, and it wasn’t just driven by a few outlier categories.

Overall, the report added to the sense that the faster inflation numbers from Q1 were an aberration, rather than the start of a more concerning trend of faster inflation. Indeed, if you look at the last 12 months of core CPI readings, the three fastest months were all in Q1. Moreover, it comes on the back of some softer data in recent days, particularly with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.0%. So it cemented the idea that the Fed were getting closer to a place where they’d be able to cut rates, and led to a phenomenal market rally. Indeed, at the height of the moves after the CPI but before the Fed, the 10yr Treasury yield was down by -15.6bps intraday, and investors were fully pricing in two 25bp rate cuts from the Fed this year.

However, that rally began to unwind a bit after the Fed, who struck a more hawkish tone than had been expected. In terms of the main headlines, they kept rates unchanged, but their dot plot now pointed to just one rate cut over the rest of 2024, having signalled three cuts back in March. So that was clearly a more hawkish profile, and the consensus had still been expecting they’d show two cuts. Alongside that, the median dot for 2025 was up by 25bps as well, and the longer-run estimate of neutral moved up to 2.75%. The inflation forecasts were also revised up a bit for this year and next, with the core PCE inflation projection up two-tenths to 2.8% in 2024, whilst 2025 was up one-tenth to 2.3%.

In the press conference, Chair Powell did not emphasise the hawkish dot plot shift and noted in his prepared remarks that “the most recent inflation readings have been more favorable”. But he also downplayed the CPI print earlier in the day as only one data point and highlighted the solid performance of the economy and the labour market. For our US economists, they think the softer CPI print opens the door more widely to a September rate cut, but they think that would require more tame inflation readings over the next few months, and possible some softening in the growth and labour market data. Their baseline remains that the Fed is still likely to cut rates once this year in December. See their full reaction note here .

After the combination of the very dovish CPI, and then a somewhat hawkish Fed decision, Fed funds futures ended the day pricing in a more dovish path than they’d started. For instance, the amount of cuts priced in by December was up +5.1bps to 44bps, although that was down from a peak above 50bps before the Fed’s decision. Treasury yields followed a similar path, with 2yr yields down -16.6bps intraday before giving up around half of those gains by the close (-8.2bps to 4.75%). And 10yr yields were down -8.8bps to 4.32%, having traded at a two-month low of 4.25% intra-day. The decline in US rates weighed on the dollar, with the broad dollar index down -0.56% by the close, while the euro (+0.63%) had its strongest performance against the dollar so far this year.

For risk assets, the prospect of more rate cuts led to a major rally as well, and the S&P 500 (+0.85%) posted another record that took it above the 5400 mark for the first time. Tech stocks led the gains, with the Magnificent 7 (+1.93%) advancing for the seventh time in eight sessions. However, the gains were more moderate elsewhere, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 posting a smaller +0.53% gain, whilst the Dow Jones (-0.09%) saw a modest decline. Nevertheless, the VIX index of volatility (-0.81pts) fell to just 12.04pts, not far off from its post-Covid low of 11.86pts last month. And US HY spreads tightened -8bps on the day to 302bps.

Back in Europe, markets closed before the Fed’s decision, but they started to recover from the political uncertainty at the start of the week, and then got further momentum from the US CPI print. That led to a sovereign bond rally across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-9.2bps), OATs (-8.9bps) and BTPs (-15.3bps) all seeing a strong decline. In large part, that was thanks to investors pricing in more rate cuts from the ECB, with a sense that more Fed cuts could give other central banks more room to cut their own policy rates, not least given the exchange rate impact. Indeed, the amount of ECB cuts priced in by the December meeting was up +3.5bps on the day to 37bps.

For European equities, there was also a widespread rebound, and the STOXX 600 (+1.08%) had its strongest daily performance in a month. That came as French President Macron confirmed in a press conference that he wouldn’t resign after the parliamentary elections. But there was still plenty happening in French politics, and yesterday saw the conservative Les Républicains expel their President Éric Ciotti, after he called for an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. In the meantime, the Franco-German 10yr spread held steady at its higher level, ticking up by less than a basis point to 61bps, having already widened by +12.7bps on Monday and Tuesday.

In the background to all this, oil prices continued to rise yesterday, with Brent crude up another +0.83% yesterday to $82.60/bbl. Although that only puts them back in line with their levels from last month, it’s still a noticeable rebound from where they stood early last week, when they closed at a 4-month low of $77.52/bbl.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a pretty mixed performance for markets overnight. On the one hand, the KOSPI (+1.43%) is on track for its highest close since February 2022, and the Hang Seng (+0.54%) has also advanced. But that’s come alongside declines for the CSI 300 (-0.43%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.30%) and the Nikkei (-0.20%). In the meantime, it was reported by Nikkei Asia that the Bank of Japan would consider reducing its government bond holdings at its meeting that starts today. Looking forward though, US equity futures are pointing towards further gains, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.24%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.72%) both higher.

In terms of other economic data, the UK’s monthly GDP growth came in unchanged in April, although that was a bit better than the -0.1% reading expected. Otherwise, the Australian unemployment rate came down a tenth to 4.0% in May, in line with expectations.

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