Soft Or Hard Landing: Why The Chaos Of Recession Is Misunderstood

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

There remains a low probability of a US recession over the next three to four months. However, contrary to popular opinion, getting visibility much further out than that is very difficult, with next to no indicators giving a reliable read, ahead of time, on a recession more than six months forward.

Fortunately, a few months’ head start on a downturn is normally enough to miss most of the stock market’s selloff.