Reciprocity, Retaliation, & A Tariff-Induced Recession?

Authored by Philip Marey via Rabobank,

Summary 

The stagflationary impact of the Trump tariffs has been in our baseline forecast since February last year. However, we assumed a more modest 5% universal tariff, rather than 10% plus country-specific additions. Based on simulations with a number of scenarios for how the trade war is going to develop, we now think that the probability of a US recession is higher than 50%. At the same time, inflation is now also likely to surpass the 4.0% peak that we had in our forecasts earlier.