print-icon
print-icon
premium-contentPremium

Reciprocity, Retaliation, & A Tariff-Induced Recession?

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Authored...

Authored by Philip Marey via Rabobank,

Summary 

The stagflationary impact of the Trump tariffs has been in our baseline forecast since February last year. However, we assumed a more modest 5% universal tariff, rather than 10% plus country-specific additions. Based on simulations with a number of scenarios for how the trade war is going to develop, we now think that the probability of a US recession is higher than 50%. At the same time, inflation is now also likely to surpass the 4.0% peak that we had in our forecasts earlier.