Ready Or Not, Here They Come: Morgan Stanley's Key Takeaways For The 2024 Elections

By Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley

As we continue looking ahead to 2024, this week we focus on the upcoming US election. If you’re one of the many clients with politics fatigue and that sentence alone makes you want to stop reading, just remember the old saying…elections have consequences. So, we’ve rolled out an early election guide for investors, with a few key takeaways to keep in mind.

First, it’s worth noting that a heavy dose of humility is warranted when forecasting how the election might impact markets. We’re nearly a year out, and the issues and potential market impacts that today appear to hinge on the outcome could change dramatically. For example, early in 2020 the stage seemed set for a referendum on healthcare policy, with investors focused on the sectoral impacts for pharma and insurance companies. Instead, due to Covid, the election became a key variable in determining the size and scope of further fiscal responses to the pandemic’s impact on the economy, deeming it a catalyst for several macro markets. Similarly, the 2008 cycle seemed set to focus on foreign policy, but then the financial crisis put a stimulus response and bank regulation into the spotlight. We could go on, but the point is that it’s still early, and much could change.