Paper Tail Risk Is Cheap, And Everyone Just Noticed: Hedge Funds Load Up On Brent Upside, Dealers Face 'Short Gamma' Squeezed

Goldman's oil research says the war premium is on its way out. Goldman's futures desk says the hedge funds are paying up in case it isn't.

On Friday, December Brent settled at $109.86 after briefly topping $110 for the first time since May 20 (per Bloomberg), capping a second straight weekly gain as another tanker burned in the Gulf of Oman, Ukraine set Russia's Ryazan refinery on fire, and Iranian state TV flagged a "thermal anomaly" near a Saudi pipeline at Yanbu. That same morning, Goldman Sachs Research (via the bank's "Briefings" newsletter) raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85 and said Brent averages $80 in 2027 because Persian Gulf exports have "rebounded close to 2025 levels since late September."

$4.9 Billion In A Week, With Calls Leading