This Is The Most Important Chart On Trade

Below is the chart which DB's chief FX strategist George Saravelos thinks best summarizes the global impact of US trade policy. It shows which countries would be most impacted by US tariffs by doing three things:

• First, it calculates how much tariffs on a country's exports would rise based on a minimum universal tariff combined with a reciprocal matching US tariff. This means that if a country has high tariffs for inbound imports from America, the US would match those duties.
• Second, it scales the tariff increase by the share of US exports in a country's export basket. So the bigger trade with the US is for a country, the bigger the impact.
• Finally, this is scaled by the size of that country's export basket as a share of GDP. So the more open an economy and the bigger the reliance on the US, the bigger the impact.

The chart demonstrates what should by now be a familiar conclusion - Mexico and Vietnam are the most vulnerable countries in EM, while Canada and Europe are in DM.