"The Markets Feel Less Healthy Than They Look" - Goldman Macro Trader Fears "Short-Termism & Complacency"

Authored by Bobby Molavi, Goldman Sachs MD, Macro Trader,

The markets feel less healthy than they look.

I think the last 2 weeks have been painful from a performance perspective with themes starting to unwind (power, Copper, Semis, Software), key factors starting to show signs of weakness (Momentum), market structure becoming a tail risk (retail/shorts and the return of roaring kitty)...as well as a some pretty severe Emerging market moves as investors sought to digest news/risks pertaining to Mexico, India, South Africa election outcomes. We saw bearish signals in relation to commod price draw downs (Oil and Materials) Elsewhere we saw the ECB cut....albeit a hawkish cut at that...and in the US we saw mixed messages of weak data (ISM) pointing to a harder landing but likely offset but faster cuts...followed by stronger data (NFP) that once again renewed fears that rate cuts would be pushed out.