Lula Shock, AI Block, & New Smoking Barrels: October Spooks Bond Vigilantes Into Midterms...

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Tl;dr: October saved its most telling session for last. On month-end Friday stocks, crypto and bond yields all tumbled together while oil hit a six-month high: the Nasdaq 100 plunged at the open and kept going as Intel suffered its biggest crash on record and Amazon slid on a $33.5 billion cash burn, bitcoin hit a six-week low after North Korea was blamed for a $6.3 billion Binance heist, the 10Y fell to a six-week low, and Brent touched $118 as the US readied post-midterm strikes on Iran. That was the month in miniature. AI's funding bill came due (Meta raised equity, Microsoft and Amazon borrowed, Alphabet had its worst day ever), the Nasdaq suffered its worst month against the equal-weight S&P since 2002 while the Dow is up, and bonds won as the market traded AI as a growth shock, with Warsh's Fed pausing over two hawkish dissents. France's spread hit 2011 levels before Moody's blinked, and Lula's win sent Brazil down 13.9% in a day. Gold crashed to one year lows. Investors bought equity funds for six straight weeks, but US equity funds finally bled $6.7 billion into hyperscaler week. Next: the midterms, and the Iran clock.