Iran says Qatar-mediated talks are making progress; European bourses set for a firmer open - Newsquawk EU Market Open

• US President Trump would reportedly be able to resume strikes a day after the midterms, while Iran says Qatar-mediated talks are making progress.
• APAC stocks were mixed, partially shrugging off Friday's tech rout on Wall Street, while US equity futures rebounded ahead of Apple's earnings and Tuesday's US midterms.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3%, after the cash market closed down 1.2% on Friday.
• DXY was uneventful, while Chinese official PMIs fell into contraction and crude futures retreated amid hopes for diplomacy.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q4), Chinese NPC Standing Committee (2-6 Nov). Speakers include ECB's Vujcic & Fed's Goolsbee. Earnings from Apple.

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IRAN CONFLICT

• US President Trump reiterated that the conflict with Iran is expected to "end very soon." Trump separately commented on Sunday that he had a good talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu and discussed Iran.
• US President Trump said regarding Iran that they will put it away soon one way or another, while he warned that either Iran will make a deal or they will just end it.
• US President Trump reportedly could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections, according to MS Now, while a Chinese media report also noted that Trump plans to resume military strikes against Tehran after the US midterm elections.
• US President Trump is reportedly focused on getting nuclear concessions from Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials are concentrating on limiting any new action against Iran to possibly just days, according to Jerusalem Post.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump has not yet decided whether to resume military action against Iran, but would like to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
• US Central Command posted that the Iranian Foreign Minister's recent claim that Iran has not attacked civilians in neighbouring countries is false, while CENTCOM added that Iran has not only intentionally attacked civilian infrastructure, neighbourhoods, and other facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries, but it has also deliberately attacked civilian mariners at sea.
• An Israeli source said Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday's midterm elections, while Trump is said to favour letting negotiations continue, according to Axios.
• Israel's Mossad and IDF appear to be divided on targets for new Iran operations, with Mossad chief Gof drafting plans to advance Israeli PM Netanyahu's push for Iranian regime change, while the IDF is focused primarily on eliminating concrete threats. Furthermore, the potential targets cited include Pickaxe Mountain, new facilities linked to weapons R&D, newly built or repaired ballistic missile production sites and strategic weapons projects, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
• Israeli news site Walla quoted officials stating that Israel will receive advance warning if Washington decides to launch an attack on Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
• Gulf states warned that a renewed US–Israel strike on Iran could trigger a larger regional war.
• Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, as diplomats seek to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities after the midterm elections, according to Reuters, citing a source briefed on the negotiations. It was separately reported by Axios that the Iranian delegation left Doha and mediators are working on addressing the remaining concerns of both parties.
• Iranian Presidency said the Foreign Minister briefed the government on the latest progress in talks with the US conducted via intermediaries.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks mediated by Qatar are ongoing and making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. Araghchi also commented that Tehran has studied US VP Vance's message and discussed it at a high level, while he added the US effort to open a broader dialogue is a positive step, but there are no current plans for a meeting with US officials and that Tehran will decide whether talks are direct or indirect after the US accepts Iran's conditions. Furthermore, he stated that the current proposal on the table is the same as Iran's 7-day plan and that mediators presented proposals on the nuclear issue, which Tehran is examining.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran is prepared on both defence and diplomatic fronts, while he added that which route it pursues depends on whether the US acts rationally. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran urged the US to remain rational and prioritise diplomacy over other options.
• Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered senior military commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation with the US and Israel, as well as expand Tehran's retaliation options, despite his top diplomat signalling progress in diplomatic talks, while he told IRGC chiefs that "every level and type of threat must be met with an immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations".
• IRGC intelligence said it arrested a spy who had passed operational details of a UAV and missile-parts production centre in the Markazi province to a foreign adversary.
• Drones attacked two fishing boats 14 nautical miles south of Iran's Qeshm Island, leaving two fishermen missing and two wounded, Iran's semi-official FARS news agency reported on Saturday. It was also reported by IRIB that a Hormozgan province official said that the US had attacked two fishing boats near Qeshm Island.
• IRGC targeted a violating vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sabereen News.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, while it also received a report of an incident 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, in which a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles, although the crew was accounted for and there were no reported environmental impacts.
• Two oil tankers struck mines on the 'unauthorised route' in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media.
• Israeli airstrike interrupted a speech by Lebanon's Minister of Social Affairs in southern Lebanon.
• A Saudi-led coalition said it carried out precision strikes on Houthi forces aimed at destroying key resources the Houthis use to support their military operations.
• Yemeni security official said Houthi forces launched missiles towards an area near a government military facility in the southern port city of Aden.
• Several large explosions were heard in Khamis Mushait, southwestern Saudi Arabia, Tasnim reported, citing Arabian media, while Saudi Civil Defence later said that the danger has passed in the Saudi cities of Abha, Najran and Taif.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks tumbled on Friday in a tech-led sell-off, which saw the Nasdaq 100 briefly enter correction territory following a slew of woeful tech earnings and updates. Intel (INTC) slumped following weak results, disappointing next-quarter guidance and cautious commentary on the PC market, weighing on broader PC names. Meanwhile, SanDisk's (SNDK) earnings pressured the memory sector, while Amazon (AMZN) shares initially slid following a weak quarter and disappointing FCF, although they managed to claw back much of their losses. AI concerns also mounted after Blackstone told Anthropic that it may not receive an investment-grade credit rating, according to the FT. The majority of sectors were hit, particularly Tech, which dropped over 4%, while Industrials, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary also lagged amid the AI and mega-cap stock rout. Energy stocks outperformed alongside Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care and Real Estate, with higher crude prices supporting Energy, while the defensive nature of the other sectors helped them hold up in the risk-off trade. The VIX peaked just shy of 24, but as stocks moved off their lows in the final hour of trade, it retreated below 20.
• SPX -1.83% at 7,579, NDX -3.46% at 28,385, DJI -1.09% at 51,771, RUT -1.75% at 2,809.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said he spoke with Canadian PM Carney the other day and they are close to a deal, stating that they have the concept of a very good deal with Canada which will build and pay for the Keystone Pipeline.
• Canadian PM Carney said he held a productive conversation with US President Trump on bilateral trade and that both sides are exploring a framework for a mutually beneficial Canada‑US trade agreement.
• Canadian PM Carney said Canada would not hurry into a trade deal with the US unless the terms were in its best interests, while he suggested Canada would remain in President Trump's crosshairs after the US midterm elections.
• Canadian Foreign Minister Anand said the country is making rapid progress in diversifying its trade and security ties around the world with a goal of doubling its non-US trade in the next decade, as Ottawa emphasises trust in building new relationships outside North America.
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang told visiting German President Steinmeier that China is willing to increase imports of high-quality German products and urged both countries to uphold free trade and open cooperation amid rising protectionism. Li also called for expanded cooperation through bilateral consultation mechanisms in the automotive, chemical, AI, digital and green industries, according to a Chinese foreign ministry readout.
• China's MOFCOM said the nation's upgraded free-trade agreement with Peru took effect on Sunday, expanding provisions covering e-commerce, global supply chains, competition policy and the environment.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Logan (2026 voter) said on Friday that the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, although a pause following 50bps of tightening would make sense to assess the need for further action. Logan said gradual policy adjustments could reduce the risk of a sharp economic deterioration and allow households, businesses and investors to adapt to higher rates, while she stated that the ultimate objective is to make policy modestly restrictive and stressed that it was unacceptable that inflation was not returning to the Fed’s 2% target. Furthermore, she said that skipping a meeting would not alter the eventual policy destination.
• Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said on Friday that the Fed would need to raise interest rates again 'soon', arguing that earlier action would reduce the risk of broader economic damage, while inflation remained too high and was unlikely to ease without further central bank action. Musalem favoured incremental rate adjustments over abrupt moves and noted that higher long-term bond yields reflected expectations of higher policy rates, while overall financial conditions remained accommodative. Musalem outlined two possible inflation scenarios, with the more likely outcome being that inflation remains elevated without further rate hikes, while a less likely but plausible alternative would see no additional tightening required.
• US President Trump said he may have to become "Mr Veto" if Democrats secure a majority in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to a clip of his New York Post interview aired on Fox News.
• White House has reportedly been preparing contingency plans for months to advance parts of the president's agenda by executive action if Democrats win control of Congress and has prepared for congressional investigations of the administration.
• OpenAI reportedly lowered its fundraising target by USD 10bln to around USD 20bln at a USD 1.25tln valuation, down from USD 30bln at a USD 1.4tln valuation last month, as an AI stock sell-off and rival Anthropic's anticipated public listing complicate efforts to secure investor commitments, according to the Financial Times.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region partially shrugged off last Friday's continued tech rout on Wall St, where the Nasdaq briefly dipped into correction territory following weak earnings, while participants were cautious ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday and as they second-guess whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran post-election, although there were some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and financials heading into a widely expected rate hike by the RBA tomorrow and with Westpac shares indecisive following its earnings results.
• Nikkei 225 saw choppy price action in which it swung between gains and losses, but clawed back initial losses and returned to above the 63,000 level.
• KOSPI rebounded from an initial dip and outperformed its regional peers, with South Korean President Lee pledging that the government will nearly double AI investment spending next year to KRW 21.3tln, while he also commented that the Future Response Fund will be a strategic investment platform, as well as a fiscal stability mechanism.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned following a recent slew of earnings, including from China's big four banks, which all posted profit growth and with the PBoC meeting with Chinese regulators and major banks to discuss measures to support the capital market. In addition, the central bank announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations and shifted to overnight reverse repos as its main policy anchor, while participants also digested the latest PMI data, which was mixed as the official releases missed expectations and fell into contraction territory, but the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI continued to show an expansion.
• US equity futures rebounded after last Friday's selling pressure, but with the upside capped as participants await looming key events including Apple's earnings after-hours and tomorrow's midterm elections.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.2% on Friday.

FX

• DXY traded uneventfully as mixed geopolitical headlines dominated weekend newsflow, with markets bracing for the midterm elections and whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran, while hawkish comments from a couple of Fed officials on Friday regarding the need for further hikes did little to shift the dial, and a suggestion from President Trump that they are close to a deal with Canada also failed to spur price action.
• EUR/USD eked out slight gains in uneventful trade and after the latest protests in France were mostly peaceful, although Fitch placed France's credit rating on negative outlook in an unscheduled move on Friday.
• GBP/USD lacked demand following its recent pullback beneath the 1.3400 handle and amid quiet catalysts for the FX space, while there were reports that the BoE is considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending.
• USD/JPY resumed last Friday's intraday rebound from support around the 157.00 level, with the pair unfazed by the quasi jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who noted that PM Takaichi said the yen's undervaluation is problematic and that the government remains ready to take action against disorderly FX moves, but also stated that conditions have improved from before and that she couldn't say if current levels are good or bad.
• Antipodeans slightly weakened after their recent choppy performances and mixed data from Australia, while the latest official Chinese PMI data from over the weekend disappointed, with all figures slipping beneath the 50 benchmark level, although the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory.
• PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7146 vs exp. 6.6625 (prev. 6.7138).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were little changed amid relatively quiet newsflow from the US outside of geopolitics, although there were comments from Fed officials on Friday with Logan (2026 voter) stating that at least two more 25bps rate hikes are needed but a pause following 50bps of tightening would make sense to assess the need for further action, while Musalem (2028 voter) said the Fed would need to raise rates again 'soon', arguing that earlier action would reduce the risk of broader economic damage whilst inflation remained too high and it was unlikely to ease without further action.
• Bund futures saw two-way price action and returned to flat territory amid a lack of pertinent catalysts and following the unrest that erupted in Frankfurt, where rioters looted stores on Saturday after tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across Germany's major cities, calling for better education and lower living costs.
• 10yr JGB futures pulled back from last Friday's post-BoJ highs with demand not helped by supply in the form of a 5-year Japan Climate Transition Bond auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures retreated amid some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with mediators in Doha to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, while Iran's Foreign Minister said that talks mediated by Qatar were making progress, although no final conclusion was reached. Nonetheless, there were plenty of geopolitical headlines from over the weekend, including a report that US President Trump could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections and that Israeli PM Netanyahu urged Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections, although Trump was said to favour letting negotiations continue.
• Major OPEC+ producers reaffirmed their plans to keep December oil production quotas unchanged, as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt a significant portion of the group's output, while it was separately reported that potential adjustments to output policy could be considered in 2027, with the group expected to complete an assessment of member countries' production capacities before determining quota baselines for 2027, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter.
• US is pushing for a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine in an effort to unlock an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, but faces resistance in European capitals, according to WSJ.
• Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports by producers until January 31, 2027, in a move aimed at maintaining stability in the domestic fuel market, according to the government.
• Germany is set to miss its November 1 target for filling natural gas storage facilities, with reserves standing at 61.17% as of Friday, well below the 70% goal. The shortfall comes as colder weather sets in and despite efforts to increase fuel purchases through state-owned energy company SEFE, leaving the country with a reduced buffer ahead of peak winter demand, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
• Spot gold recouped some of last week's losses after slumping beneath the USD 4,000/oz level, with the partial rebound coinciding with a pullback in oil prices.
• Copper futures kept afloat as the overall mixed risk appetite gradually improved.
• China's reserves of strategic resources, including gold, nickel and rhenium, rose sharply following a nationwide reassessment of deposits, with retained rhenium resources increasing by more than 200% and additions to gold and nickel reserves equivalent to 50 and 30 large deposits, respectively, according to Xinhua, citing the Ministry of Natural Resources.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin gradually edged higher after rebounding from a brief dip beneath the USD 78,000 level.
• Binance announced the resumption of withdrawals in phases on Sunday, two days after hackers attempted to steal more than USD 6bln from the crypto exchange in the largest cyber theft on record.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC was reported to meet with the NFRA, CSRC and major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support the capital market, including improvements to a relending programme for share buybacks and stake increases, according to Cailian, citing industry sources.
• PBoC announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations on Friday, which will move to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. PBoC said other tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repo tools, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day reverse repo operations will mainly take place around tax periods and month-end.
• China's DeepSeek launched a prototype of a more autonomous coding agent, dubbed "Super-Agent", as it seeks to challenge Anthropic's Claude Code, with the open-source offering able to proactively monitor developers' group chats for coding issues and suggest solutions without being prompted.
• Macau's gaming revenue in October fell for a fifth consecutive month with gross gaming revenue down 10% Y/Y to MOP 21.68bln, as weak spending by high-end players offset a surge in Golden Week visitors.
• Australian PM Albanese is reportedly set to visit Beijing next month in an effort to stabilise relations between the two countries, following his attendance at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19, according to the South China Morning Post, citing unidentified sources.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.3 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
• Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2)
• Chinese NBS General PMI (Oct) 49.7 (Prev. 50.7)
• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1)
• South Korean Trade Balance (Oct) 42.50B vs. Exp. 37.24B (Prev. 49.97B)
• South Korean Exports (Oct YY) 93.7% vs. Exp. 93.2% (Prev. 83.7%)
• South Korean Imports (Oct YY) 36% vs. Exp. 39.9% (Prev. 26%)

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• A drone attack caused significant damage to an industrial facility in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region following a large-scale assault, according to regional governor Nikitin.
• Ukrainian drones struck a refinery complex deep inside Russia, while Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine continued efforts to restore electricity following Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said if Washington wants Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian refineries, Moscow must stop attacking Ukraine's energy system, while he said Ukraine has proposed to the US the purchase of Patriot missiles and is willing to raise the necessary funding.
• Ukraine's air alert warning system was hacked, according to reports citing the Ukrainian air force.
• US First Lady Melania Trump posted that the Oleshky ceasefire concluded on November 1st and that the mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people.
• US Secretary of State Rubio defended the decision to include Russia in the G20 meetings following criticism from the EU and other allies, stating that dialogue is the only way to end the war in Ukraine, while it was reported that Rubio said he briefly discussed with the Russian Foreign Minister the possibility of a meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in China this month, on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
• US reconnaissance aircraft patrolled near the border between Baltic states and Russia for over five hours, according to RIA.
• Russian President Putin agreed to halt the recruitment of Ghanaian nationals to fight in Ukraine following concerns raised by Ghanaian President Mahama, according to Ghana's foreign minister.
• Russia's Emergency Ministry mobile app was hit by a massive cyber attack, while the hacking resulted in the spread of fake information.
• EU foreign policy chief Kallas said Russian President Putin's potential attendance at the G20 leaders' summit in Florida in December would risk normalising Russia's return to international forums while the war in Ukraine continues.
• US Embassy in Moscow warned of a credible threat of a mass casualty event at the Tsaritsyno Museum Reserve on Saturday, stating it was coordinating with Russian authorities on a response, and urged US citizens to avoid the area, while it was separately reported that Russia's Federal Security Service said it had detained a teenage boy on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack targeting a park and museum in Moscow.
• Serbia’s central bank revoked the operating licence of Alta Bank, a lender used by Russians that has come under international scrutiny over suspected money laundering, according to FT.

OTHER

• North Korea's defence science research institute tested a major weapon system to assess combat suitability and effectiveness of a cluster-bomb warhead designed for tactical ballistic missiles, according to KCNA.
• North Korea said it is to speed up strengthening its nuclear war deterrent and that the US-South Korea 'Iron Mace' drill was a nuclear war rehearsal targeting North Korea, according to KCNA.
• South Korea's army said a staff sergeant died after suffering external injuries at a frontline unit near the border with North Korea in Cheorwon.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE is reportedly considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending, with its Financial Policy Committee reviewing a proposal to raise the income multiple threshold to 5x from the current 4.5x, following pressure from lenders and the government, according to the Financial Times.
• UK Chancellor Healey hinted at a delay in equalising minimum wages for young people, declining to reiterate the government's commitment to bringing them in line with the national standard during this Parliament, amid a youth unemployment crisis.
• Trade union chiefs warned UK Chancellor Healey against pursuing “a trade-off between jobs and wages” after he signalled the Labour manifesto pledge to close the minimum wage gap for young people would be delayed until after the next election, according to FT.
• Rioters looted stores in Frankfurt late on Saturday after tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across Germany's major cities, calling for better education and lower living costs.
• Police secured the Bastille area in Paris following largely peaceful protests, while demonstrations also took place in Marseille, where tensions later escalated after mostly peaceful rallies.
• Belgian PM De Wever is said to offer resignation to the king, according to local press.
• Fitch placed France's credit rating on negative outlook and affirmed its A+ sovereign rating in an unscheduled move on Friday, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating state of the country's public finances, while Fitch affirmed Slovakia at A-; outlook stable.