Initial Claims Surge To 10-Month Highs As California Joblessness Soars

Did we suddenly get a peek at economic reality?

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time surged last week to 242k (up from 229k and well above the 225k exp). That is the highest since August 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

On an NSA basis, claims exploded higher.

The last three weeks have seen the largest surge in claims since January...

Source: Bloomberg

Notably this surge is very VERY similar to what we saw last year (but not the prior few years, so not a 'seasonal' pattern per se)...

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in NSA claims was driven by California...

Did Newsom's $20 fast food minimum wage bill start to hurt?

Probably just a coincidence, right?

Continuing claims also surged back above 1.8 million Americans to its highest level since January...

Source: Bloomberg

Is the government's data finally starting to catch up with reality?

Source: Bloomberg

Does The Fed suddenly "need" bad data to allow rate-cuts before the election?