How Janet Yellen Will Unleash Another Market Meltup Next Monday

Back in February 2021, long before most had heard of the Treasury General Account or the Quarterly Refunding Statement, we were the first to point out - and correctly predict - how the Treasury's then near-record $1.1 trillion cash balance would serve as a liquidity tsunami as it was rapidly drawn down, boosting asset prices in parallel with the Fed's still massive QE, a unprecedented tidal wave of money which was the primary catalyst sending bitcoin from $10,000 in October 2020 to $$65,000 in April 2021.

Fast forward to last week when we pointed out something, if not quite as dramatic, then certainly comparable: while the Treasury projected a cash balance of $750BN at March 31 and then again at June 30 in its most recent quarterly Sources and Uses of funds forecast published in late January...