Housing Starts & Permits Surged In August As Rate-Cut Euphoria Re-Emerged

After an unexpectedly large decline in July, August's data for Housing Starts and Building Permits rebounded dramatically, well above expectations. Starts rose 9.6% MoM (vs +6.5% exp and -6.8% prior) while Permits jumped 4.9% MoM (vs +1.0% exp and -3.3% prior). Both prints are the highest since February...

Source: Bloomberg

The SAAR for starts and permits obviously rose but remains near COVID lockdown lows still...

Source: Bloomberg

Single-Family Starts and Multi-Family Permits dominated the increases...

Source: Bloomberg

This should not be a total surprise as forward-looking permits have tracked (with a lag) rate-cut expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

What happens if The Fed disappoints?