"This Has Never Occurred Off A New High": Today's Unprecedented Momentum Reversal Heralds Start Of 20% Slide To BTIG

Just after lunch on the East coast, the Nasdaq 100 is down more than 1%, a day after posting a 14-day RSI of 82, a setup which according to BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky has only occurred ten times in the last 30 years, with some speculating that this is just the beginning of the violent reversal discussed last night by Nomura's Charlie McElligott. 

Outcomes are mixed: post-GFC instances skewed bearish with meaningful drawdowns, while 1998–2000 episodes were mostly bullish with limited downside (except July ’98 which saw -28%). Despite the split historical analogs, BTIG's base case is for an “equal and opposite” reaction to the recent parabolic tech/semis/AI advance, with SOXX at least testing its 50-day moving average (~20% lower from current levels).