"Goldilocks Is Between 150K And 200K": March Payrolls Preview

Friday's employment data - credible as it may be, and unfortunately after the last two months of vapid, manipulated nonsense (here and here), it has zero credibility - is what Goldman trader John Flood calls the "appetizer" ahead of the CPI main course on April 10th.

The rate of payroll growth is expected to cool in March, and come in below recent averages. As Newsquawk notes, labor market proxies have been mixed in the month: ADP surprised to the upside, there was a small tick higher in initial jobless claims and continuing claims; business surveys registered improvement in employment conditions in March although still remain in contraction; JOLTs data was inline with expectations, and shows a still sturdy labor market even if the number of quits has slumped. More to the point, Chair Powell recently said that "It would take an unexpected deterioration in the labor market for the Fed to consider rate cuts sooner" and that is not a scenario that he currently sees; on the other side, Powell also suggested that hotter than expected jobs growth was not necessarily something that could stoke inflation, given the growth in labor supply (read: the ongoing surge in illegal immigration). That said, with Biden getting increasing pushback from the radical left such as Elizabeth Warren, to slash rates, we would not be at all surprised if the BLS has finally gotten a tap on the shoulder and we get a "shock" sub-100K print tomorrow.

EXPECTATIONS: