Gold Soars To Record High, Dollar Dumps As Kamala Unveils 'Populist' Economic Plan
We are sure it's just a coincidence...
...but on the day that Kamala Harris unveils her price-fixing, vote-buying agenda for economic growth...
...the dollar plunged to 5-month lows...
Source: Bloomberg
... and gold soared to a record high, topping $2500 for the first time...
Source: Bloomberg
On the day, US markets were able to brush off weak Housing data (looks like a bit of a drag from Hurricane Beryl) and underwhelming earnings from AMAT (closed -2%) to close out its best week of the year and 7th consecutive session in the green.
US equities also soared this week to their best week of the year, led by a a 5%-plus surge in the Nasdaq (up 12% from last Monday's lows)...
Nasdaq rallied up to a key technical resistance level - at its 50DMA and the last July high...
Which mirrors the rebound in Mag7 stocks (as they rallied up to the late-July highs, but couldn't break it)...
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were lifted by an ongoing short-squeeze...
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was clubbed like a baby seal on the week, extending its largest/fastest retracement ever...
The collapse of implied vol this week leaves a massive discount to the realized vol of the last month...
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets rallied hard this week, adjust back from "hard landing" to "soft landing" scenarios...
Source: Bloomberg
Despite all the focus on jobless claims, CPI, and retail sales, this week was actually a 'weak' one for US macro surprises...
Source: Bloomberg
...and that sparked a hawkish drop in rate-cut expectations - back to pre-payrolls levels (less than 200bps of cuts to end-2025)...
Source: Bloomberg
That prompted weakness at the short-end (+1bps) of the Treasury curve on the week (but the long-end ended 7bps lower on the week). The obvious shift was the bearish rise in yields after CPI...
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve flattened significantly on the week, with 2s10s re-inverting...
Source: Bloomberg
Another choppy week for crypto but today saw Bitcoin surge back up to $60,000 as Kamala spoke. to end the week unchanged...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were flat on the week after some volatile days...
Source: Bloomberg
The other side of the AI-trade - copper - is not buying the euphoria in AI stocks...
Source: Bloomberg
Also worth noting is that the yen carry trade was not fully embraced to lift stocks...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the plunge in the dollar and surge in stocks and gold all took place since Kamala overtook Trump in the prediction markets...
Source: Bloomberg
Coincidence?